Current prime minister is Petr Fiala. Andrej Babiš is the leader of the current largest opposition party (ANO). Next standard parliamentary elections are in ~October 2025.
Will resolve once the next prime minister is named and passes a confidence vote from the Chamber of Deputies of the Parliament of the Czech Republic.
I think it's pessimistically plausible
95 % he's the next ANO leader
80 % 5-coalition doesn't get a majority
97 % they would find a coalition partner willing to appoint Babiš (SPD / SocDem / Přísaha)
But it could be just
40 % Pavel would appoint him
Resulting in 29 % estimate
Any other takes?
90% that he is ANO's candidate for prime minester (there are speculations that he might leave it up for someone else and be more of a background figure)
70% that he is able to get coalition majority (excluding parties that are unlikely to ally with him)
90% that Pavel would approint him