Will Andrej Babiš be the next prime minister of Czech Republic?

Current prime minister is Petr Fiala. Andrej Babiš is the leader of the current largest opposition party (ANO). Next standard parliamentary elections are in ~October 2025.

Will resolve once the next prime minister is named and passes a confidence vote from the Chamber of Deputies of the Parliament of the Czech Republic.

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bought Ṁ30 of NO

I think it's pessimistically plausible

95 % he's the next ANO leader
80 % 5-coalition doesn't get a majority
97 % they would find a coalition partner willing to appoint Babiš (SPD / SocDem / Přísaha)

But it could be just
40 % Pavel would appoint him

Resulting in 29 % estimate
Any other takes?


90% that he is ANO's candidate for prime minester (there are speculations that he might leave it up for someone else and be more of a background figure)

70% that he is able to get coalition majority (excluding parties that are unlikely to ally with him)

90% that Pavel would approint him