Uses the Wikipedia definition of presumptive nominee:
In United States presidential elections, the presumptive nominee is a presidential candidate who is assumed to be their party's nominee, but has not yet been formally nominated or elected by their political party at the party's nominating convention.[3][4] Ordinarily, a candidate becomes the presumptive nominee of their party when their "last serious challenger drops out"[5] or when the candidate "mathematically clinches—whichever comes first. But there is still room for interpretation."[6] A candidate mathematically clinches a nomination by securing a simple majority (i.e., more than 50 percent) of delegates through the primaries and caucuses prior to the convention.[3][4] The time at which news organizations begin to refer to a candidate as the "presumptive nominee" varies from election to election.[6] The shift in media usage from "front-runner" to "presumptive nominee" is considered a significant change for a campaign.[6]
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@ClubmasterTransparent being convicted in any of the 4 criminal trials seems fairly likely. Will it happen before the nominating convention in July? No idea but here's what Trump's legal and elections calendar looks like.
Please resolve or explain by what logic is Trump not the presumptive Republican nominee right now
He is 50 points ahead of all other candidates. He has demonstrated near-total control of his party over and over. There's little evidence that a criminal conviction would stop him from becoming the nominee. There is a non-zero chance that if incapacitated, he will remain the nominee. It is unlikely but would be unsurprising if he remained the nominee from the grave. Nikki Haley winning New Hampshire primary wouldn't change any of that and is far from guaranteed to happen.
The only reason I can see for anyone to act on an assumption that Trump is less likely than Biden to be his party's nominee is if they feel a need to treat the Republican primary as a horse race, such as, making their living as an expert on it.
@ClubmasterTransparent I believe there's a difference in degree between Biden's challengers' credibility, mainstreamness within the party, and polling gap, and Nikki Haley on those metrics. But I don't feel strongly about this and removed the reference to Biden in the description.
Concretely, I will resolve this according to when the major challengers that currently poll above 5% drop out OR Trump mathematically clinches the nomination. Thank you very much for the clarifying question.
In what world is Trump not effectively already the Republican nominee? By the same standards applied to Biden.