Will Nikki Haley still be in the GOP presidential race at the end of this week?

2024 Republican Primaries•New Hampshire Primary•Nikki Haley

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resolved Jan 28

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YES

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Resolves YES if Nikki Haley is still running for the GOP nomination for president at the end of Jan. 27.

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Imagine the chaos here if she drops out on Saturday evening.

sold Ṁ35 of NO

538 has been talking about whether she'll drop out. They don't agree on whether she'll stay until South Carolina, but they think that even if she drops out before then, she'll wait to make her decision.

bought Ṁ0 of YES

250 YES order in at 25% expiring today, buy it and I'll add more

sold Ṁ35 of NO

@GCS You think people are going to buy NO all the way down to 25%?

bought Ṁ0 of YES

@PlasmaBallin I posted this when it was at 30%

sold Ṁ35 of NO

@GCS I think I misread the 10 h ago as 10 min

bought Ṁ50 of YES

Arbitrage https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-nikki-haley-drop-out-of-the-ra-ddfaaf91288e

bought Ṁ250 of NO

She will drop out before suffering the humiliation of being blown out in her home state

bought Ṁ0 of YES

[deleted]

bought Ṁ10 of NO

I think people shouldn't be too confident. She's almost surely going to lose New Hampshire, which is basically the only state she had a chance of winning anyway. If that happens, there's a good chance she drops out, especially if she does worse than expected. Though maybe she will stay in the race just so that she can be Trump's replacement in case anything happens to him (like being ruled ineligible).