 is a presidential candidate who is assumed to be their party's 

, but has not yet been formally nominated or elected by their 

 Ordinarily, a candidate becomes the presumptive nominee of their party when their "last serious challenger drops out"

 or when the candidate "mathematically clinches—whichever comes first. But there is still room for interpretation."

 A candidate mathematically clinches a nomination by securing a simple majority (i.e., more than 50 percent) of 

 The time at which news organizations begin to refer to a candidate as the "presumptive nominee" varies from election to election.

" to "presumptive nominee" is considered a significant change for a campaign.