Will GPT be the no.1 LLM today? (Daily Market)
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17
Ṁ110k
Dec 31
98.4%
April 30, 2024
66%
Jan 1, 2025

Will GPT be the no.1 LLM on this day?
This market will resolve base on the ranking on Chatbot Arena Leaderboard
https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard
(updated leaderboard link:)
https://chat.lmsys.org/?leaderboard


Resolves Yes for the day if any versions of Chatgpt (which would include GPT3.5, GPT4, GPT4.5, GPT5) is number 1 at any time of the day. (i.e. a screenshot at anytime of the day is sufficient for the day to resolve yes.)

If no one posted a screenshot for Chatgpt being #1 for the day, I will check the ranking on the next day and resolve base on whether I see Chatgpt being #1 on the next day. If you want to make sure you win your bets, post a screenshot!


Clarification:
Number 1 means having the highest Arena Elo. If there's two AI with the exact same Arena Elo, I would count both as number 1.
The leftmost rank column is not relevant for this market

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bought Ṁ500 YES

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bought Ṁ400 YES

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bought Ṁ350 YES

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bought Ṁ100 YES

bought Ṁ200 YES

bought Ṁ200 YES

bought Ṁ200 YES

bought Ṁ200 YES

bought Ṁ200 YES

bought Ṁ200 YES

bought Ṁ200 YES

bought Ṁ200 NO

bought Ṁ200 NO

sold Ṁ297 NO

@AmmonLam can you do retroactive screenshotless resolutions of 27th and 28th please? :)

@traders Traders, be aware: there was an update earlier today, and now Claude is number 1 on the leaderboard!

@AmmonLam wow! that's crazy!

@AmmonLam to clarify, by "number 1" do you mean "in the highest spot" or do you mean "has a 1 in the rank column"? LMSYS has started giving "rank 1" to multiple LLMs if the confidence intervals overlap.

@IsaacCarruthers I mean number 1 as in the highest spot, corresponding to highest Arena Elo.
if there's two AI with the exact same Arena Elo, I would count both as number 1

rank is not relevant for this market

@AmmonLam FWIW I definitely had the impression that you meant the # given by hugging face. Rereading your market and description that seems like it was a reasonable interpretation.

@Tyler31 Sorry I didnt clarify that early on.

@AmmonLam No need to apologize. Appreciate the effort and clarity you had already.

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