Will another core staff leave Manifold before the end of 2024?
Will another core staff leave Manifold before the end of 2024?
resolved by
7
180Ṁ1863resolved Sep 16
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Austin announced his departure from Manifold on April 2nd, 2024. Will another core Manifold staff leave Manifold before the end of 2024?
Core staff included for this resolution
Marshall Polaris, David Chee, @JamesGrugett, Stephen Grugett, @ian,@Sinclair, Alice Pang
(Please let me know if I missed any core staff)
@Gen and @Joshua doesnt count since they are part time
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ75 | |
| 2 | Ṁ30 | |
| 3 | Ṁ10 | |
| 4 | Ṁ9 | |
| 5 | Ṁ7 |
Sort by:
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will SG leave Manifold before 2026?
14% chance
Will I (@Robincvgr) still be active on Manifold at the end of 2025?
95% chance
Will I still be using Manifold by September 2025?
72% chance
Will any past or present high level government official in the US join Manifold before the end of 2025?
11% chance
Who will be the last Manifold founder left standing?
Will Manifold still be around in 2035? (resolves N/A at the end of 2026)
49% chance