Join the first Manifold daily login Ironman competition!
Rules:
Stay in the competition by trading on your own answer once a day.
Any competitor who fails to place a bet for 36 consecutive hours is eliminated from the game. Bot bets and bets placed with an API do not count.
I will occasionally request a required bet amount (1-3 Mana) to prevent competitors from using bot bets. (all candidates will be pinged, so you wont miss the announcement when you place a bet)
The person who manages to stay in the game the longest wins the 30000 Mana prize. The second-place winner receives a 7000 Mana consolation prize, and the third-place winner receives a 3000 Mana consolation prize.
Note: It is totally fine for a candidate to bet 1 mana and then sell the shares immediately, that would count as the daily trade.
Note: The elimination rule remains even if there is an outage on Manifold. Contestants are responsible for figuring out how to bet ASAP after an outage. If Manifold goes on a 36 consecutive hour outage and all contestants are eliminated due to the outage, the contestant with the latest bet are eliminated last therefore wins the game.
The Ironman officially started on Monday Mar 4th, 2024
Edit: total prize pool adjusted to 40000 Mana in response to the pivot devaluing Mana. I cannot foresee all the possible changes to mana to USD conversion rate in the future, in any case the prize will correspond to 40USD of value.
1,000
3.00@Joshua already changed it from Dec 31st.
I’m confident that I could make it through another year.
But I’m also a mountain man, and while thus far I’ve found enough cell service to stay in the competition, my wilderness trips could eventually cause me to lose if/when I go for longer than 36 hrs without finding internet signal.
I believe @koadma and I both had multi-year long Duolingo streaks — I imagine we could both keep doing this indefinitely.
Driving up to Leavenworth, WA today to do a single-day traverse across ‘The Enchantments’ tomorrow. I intend to be laying in my bivy by 2000 PT tonight as to have another “Alpine Start” (i.e. wake @ 0300 & hiking [hopefully] by 0400). Per my cell provider’s coverage map, I am unlikely to have service outside of Leavenworth.
I intend to post some pics below after the hike.
In the meantime, this could be when I lose my Ironman streak, if I forget to make some bets among today’s logistical preparations or tomorrow’s/Saturday’s presumably forthcoming fatigue.
[Tagging @Predictor in case you wish to place any wagers accordingly.]
@Predictor sure, I guess I’m committed. 🤷(Unless or until mountains get in the way.)
I do a lot of backpacking and wilderness camping. I’ve been fortunate to be able to connect to cell signal while in the backcountry on several occasions now. Tbh, I’m surprised I’ve lasted this long.
On the other hand, at one time I had something like a 900+ day streak on Duolingo (although I used streak freezes when away from cell service).
@Predictor Betting on this market is just a habit for me, so I wouldn't exactly say I'm committed. However, I also don't see myself losing modulo server outages (where I'm at a disadvantage because I only bet once daily)
@firstuserhere would be proud
The flights climbed is inaccurate — I climbed over 5000 vertical feet to get to the summit at ~10,300’.