When will an AI win the $5 million AI Math Olympiad Prize?
31
1.9kṀ12k2027
1%
Before the end of Jan 2025
1%
Before the end of Feb 2025
1%
Before the end of Mar 2025
1%
Before the end of Apr 2025
1%
Before the end of May 2025
1%
Before the end of Jun 2025
10%
Before the end of Dec 2025
90%
Before the end of 2026
91%
Before the end of 2027
91%
Before the end of 2028
89%
Before the end of 2029
94%
Before the end of 2030
98.2%
Before US has the first female president
98.4%
Before Trump serves time in prison
98.1%
Before human land on mars
98%
Before human set foot on moon again
Resolution criteria same as this polymarket market, except the deadline is different here
https://polymarket.com/event/will-an-ai-win-the-5-million-ai-math-olympiad-prize-before-august
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
When will an AI win the $5 million XTX AI Mathematical Olympiad Prize?
When will an open-sourced AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?
Will the AIMO (Artificial Intelligence Mathematical Olympiad) Grand Prize be won before 2026?
14% chance
Will an AI get bronze or silver (but not gold) on any International Math Olympiad by end of 2025?
37% chance
Will an AI get gold on this Olympiad by the end of 2025?
Will a Millennium Prize problem be solved in the year 2025 with the help of AI?
3% chance
AI solves Millenium Prize Problem in 2025?
1% chance
Will OpenAI o1 (or any direct iteration like o3) get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?
21% chance
In what year will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem?
In what year will artificial intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem?
2033