What will happen before the end of Feb 2024? [300Mx3 prize] [1000M subsidy]
74
287k
resolved Mar 1
Resolved
YES
Manifold's Twitter Account reach 7000 followers
Resolved
YES
There will be more than 25 answers created
Resolved
YES
There will be 5 answers resolving yes or 5 answers resolving no
Resolved
YES
Someone will die in the next month (literally anyone)
Resolved
YES
@AmmonLam will reach 40 followers on Manifold
Resolved
YES
A Tesla catches fire, as reported by https://www.tesla-fire.com/
Resolved
YES
Trump wins every Republican primary and caucus he's on.
Resolved
YES
Apple Vision Pro in hands of customers
Resolved
YES
1 BTC is worth at least 12 ETH
Resolved
YES
Microsoft Stock is worth more than Apple Stock for 24 hours or more
Resolved
YES
osu lazer fully releases
Resolved
YES
Gemini Ultra (google llm) is released / becomes accessible
Resolved
YES
Manifold Politics will have a functioning standalone website
Resolved
YES
$1 USD >= $0.66 AUD
Resolved
YES
Will Chicago Blackhawks win a game?
Resolved
YES
Snow will fall somewhere in the world
Resolved
YES
In the next 20 seconds at least 1 person will be born or at least 1 person will die anywhere in the world.
Resolved
N/A
Donald trump wins every republican primary and caucus that take place in febuary
Resolved
N/A
Israel & Hamas: Cease Fire
Resolved
N/A
@tfae pets a cat

What will happen before the end of Feb 2024?

Everyone welcomed to add your question
If you create a question and place at least one bet on another question , I'll refund 25M to you, making your question creation free. (1 refund per person)

Add your question to compete for a 300M prize, awarded to each of the top 3 markets with the highest number of traders by the end of February 2024 (excluding questions I created)
(no limits to how many questions one can create)

The closing time for the market will likely be extended until all questions have been resolved

I reserve the right to NA questions that I think are unreasonable

Claim your 25M refund here:

https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/create-a-market-here-and-get-25m-bo

Get Ṁ600 play money

🏅 Top traders

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This concludes the February market.

the most traded market prize goes to
@JamesF Israel and Hamas cease fire (15)
@TonyPepperoni There will be more than 100 answers created (16)

Tie breaker for 3rd place. so I splited the prize into 3
@TheAllMemeingEye Mark Zuckerberg is photographed either with an iceberg or an iceberg lettuce in frame (11)
@JamesF GPT 5 is released (11)
@PatrickLutzb8c1 At least two more states remove Trump from their primary ballot(11)

the prize has been sent directly to winner's account

@AmmonLam Nobody is ever getting this prizes and such love on the @strutheo markets, WOW!!!

>Elden Ring: Shadow of the Erdtree will be released

Somehow this is sitting higher than "Elden Ring DLC releases" https://manifold.markets/strutheo/what-will-happen-in-february-2024-a?r=TXVnYVNvZmVy

bought Ṁ1,250 Answer #0bfb5f267698 NO

@MugaSofer DLC now announced for 21st of June, so can resolve NO

A Tesla catches fire, as reported by https://www.tesla-fire.com/

bought Ṁ20 Answer #754ae7c2854e NO

Manifold had an ~20 minutes partial (but basically full) outage earlier today because of CPU overload while running some database work

Donald trump wins every republican primary and caucus that take place in febuary
bought Ṁ10 Donald trump wins ev... NO

Resolves NO. None of these candidates won the Nevada primary. Or just N/A this

bought Ṁ70 Donald trump wins ev... YES

@nikki Earlier discussion suggested that only primaries Trump is on should count https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/what-will-happen-before-the-end-of-e302c52a2102#vod6givg02i

Also, arguably since Trump is "none of these candidates", he did win!

If it is ruled that we're not counting Nevada, I'll refund you the 20 Mana you spent just now.

@nikki Can the market maker edit questions? Because I think the question should probably be edited to clarify this. @AmmonLam

@MugaSofer @nikki
I NAed the market since the wording could be unclear

bought Ṁ5,000 Answer #889b225c9f1e NO

@AmmonLam Resolves NO

@june + the two other football ones at 0%

bought Ṁ1,226 Answer #e350003d2863 NO

Resolves NO.

Manifold Politics will have a functioning standalone website
bought Ṁ200 Manifold Politics wi... YES

@AmmonLam There is already functioning standalone website for Manifold Politics https://www.manifoldpolitics.com/

Gemini Ultra (google llm) is released / becomes accessible
bought Ṁ356 Gemini Ultra (google... YES

I believe this should be resolved yes as per: https://blog.google/products/gemini/bard-gemini-advanced-app/

Donald trump wins every republican primary and caucus that take place in febuary

Does this include the Nevada primary where Trump wasn't on the ballot?

@Parks Let's say it doesnt include the Nevada primary to not make this question trivial

osu lazer fully releases
bought Ṁ100 osu lazer fully rele... YES

Resolves YES

@AmmonLam Also NO

1 BTC is worth at least 12 ETH

@AmmonLam Also resolves YES, 1 BTC currently > 18 ETH

Manifold's Twitter Account reach 7000 followers

@AmmonLam Also resolves YES

Apple Vision Pro in hands of customers

@AmmonLam Resolves YES

Also, @AmmonLam time to resolve some question!