Basic
23
1.6k
resolved Mar 5
Resolved
55%
The courts deem that he is not eligible to run for President
Resolved
50%
A sudden incident or announcement (manifold odds drop >70% in one hour)
Resolved
45%
he quits for health reasons (other than death)
Resolved
35%
he died
Resolved
35%
he quits the race during primaries
Resolved
30%
He makes a series of huge PR blunders that ruin his electability
Resolved
22%
He quits because he is too unpopular
Resolved
12%
Biden can’t or isn’t running for president
Resolved
8%
someone else got elected at the RNC
Resolved
4%
The courts concede that he won in 2020 meaning that term limits prevent him from running again

This market estimate the market consensus about what are the biggest reason/possibly scenario for Trump to not be the republican nominee, during the month of Feb 2024.

Resolves to the one month average percent from February 1st to Feb 29th. My judgment will be based on the graph, so it might be off by a few percent. If others have provided a precise average in the comments, I will rely on that precise average instead.

Let's explore what might stop him.

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Here's the percent I'm going to resolve each answer to:
A sudden incident or announcement (manifold odds drop >70% in one hour): 50%
he quits for health reasons (other than death): 45%
he died: 35%
he quits the race during primaries: 35%
The courts deem that he is not eligible to run for President: 55%
He makes a series of huge PR blunders that ruin his electability: 30%
He quits because he is too unpopular: 22%

someone else got elected at the RNC: 8%

Biden can’t or isn’t running for president: 12%
The courts concede that he won in 2020 meaning that term limits prevent him from running again: 4%

@traders If you have dispute on this resolution decision, please let me know within the next 24 hours before I resolve this market

“He makes a series of huge PR blunders.” 🤣

He could:

  1. Mock a person with disabilities.

  2. Make some incredibly sexiest remarks.

  3. Disrespect the parents of a dead war hero.

  4. Disrespect a living war hero.

Or perhaps he could:

  1. Be convicted of rape.

  2. Steal classified documents.

  3. Pressure people to overturn the will of American voters.

  4. Encourage an angry mob to attack a government building.

  5. Tell the angry mob that he loves them after they kill a few police officers.

  6. Be found guilty of business fraud.

  7. Make a series of bizarre statements and slur his words on multiple occasions.

A lot of mutually exclusive options are jointly at higher than 100%

@PlasmaBallin This market is very likely to resolve NA. Admins haven't fixed conditionals yet

@Tumbles This market resolves to the average percent in the month of February, it likely won’t resolve NA.

@AmmonLam Oh right sorry about the fake news

The courts concede that he won in 2020 meaning that term limits prevent him from running again

Is this a thing?

Lol whalebait

Cool market, way too likely to resolve NA for it to be accurate though

@Tumbles
"Resolves to the one month average percent from February 1st to Feb 29th"

@AmmonLam oh it's advanced whalebait lol. I guess the way you have it set up is slightly better, interesting idea

@Tumbles
I suppose you could consider it a whale bait market, but in this case, the whales face a real risk if they try to manipulate the price.

Let's say whales pushed a highly improbable reason to 99%, and then the unlikely scenario of Trump not being the nominee for another reason unfolds in February. In such a situation, the market force would be too large for the whales to maintain a high price when the true price should be 0%

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