If Trump is NOT the republican nominee, it was because...
23
1.3kṀ1557resolved Mar 5
Resolved
55%The courts deem that he is not eligible to run for President
Resolved
50%A sudden incident or announcement (manifold odds drop >70% in one hour)
Resolved
45%he quits for health reasons (other than death)
Resolved
35%he died
Resolved
35%he quits the race during primaries
Resolved
30%He makes a series of huge PR blunders that ruin his electability
Resolved
22%He quits because he is too unpopular
Resolved
12%Biden can’t or isn’t running for president
Resolved
8%someone else got elected at the RNC
Resolved
4%The courts concede that he won in 2020 meaning that term limits prevent him from running again
This market estimate the market consensus about what are the biggest reason/possibly scenario for Trump to not be the republican nominee, during the month of Feb 2024.
Resolves to the one month average percent from February 1st to Feb 29th. My judgment will be based on the graph, so it might be off by a few percent. If others have provided a precise average in the comments, I will rely on that precise average instead.
Let's explore what might stop him.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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