Condition on DPP winning the 2024 election, Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?

Question

Does DPP's non-corporation with China increase the chance of invasion?

(https://manifold.markets/embed/AmmonLam/condition-on-dpp-winning-the-2024-e-5fa80f0dc747)

Resolution follows the same criteria as https://manifold.markets/MarlonK/will-china-attempt-to-invade-taiwan

This market will resolve "yes" if there is a Chinese military attack with the intention to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027.

This question is answered "No" if there is:

no military conflict between the two parties

a limited military conflict without triggering a major war

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 8% chance (8 traders, as of Oct 28, 2026).