Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if the spot price of gold reaches or exceeds $4,500 USD per troy ounce at any point during December 22, 2025. Resolution will be determined using the live gold spot price from a major commodity exchange or financial data provider such as COMEX, the OTC London market, or the Shanghai Gold Exchange. The market resolves NO if the price closes below $4,500 USD per ounce by end of day December 22, 2025.

Background

Gold rose to 4,400.91 USD per troy ounce on December 22, 2025, up 1.34% from the previous day. Gold broke through $4,400 per ounce for the first time on Monday, hitting an all-time high on expectations of US interest rate cuts and escalating geopolitical tensions. Bullion has surged more than 60% so far this year, on track for its best year since 1979.

Considerations

The gold market trades continuously across global exchanges, meaning the price fluctuates throughout the day. A single intraday spike above $4,500 would satisfy the resolution criteria, even if the price closes lower. Gold spot price can fluctuate by the second, driven by investment supply and demand, and other factors.