Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if the spot price of gold falls below $4,000 per troy ounce at any point during 2026. Resolution will be determined using the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) gold price or equivalent widely-recognized spot price sources such as MarketWatch or COMEX gold futures. The market resolves NO if gold remains at or above $4,000/oz throughout the entire calendar year 2026.

Background

As of February 9, 2026, gold is trading at $5,015/oz, having recently experienced significant volatility. Gold reached an all-time high of $5,595.42 on January 29, 2026, before pulling back sharply. Gold prices surged in 2025 due to trade tensions, central bank and ETF demand.

Analyst forecasts for 2026 are mixed. J.P. Morgan Global Research is forecasting prices to average $5,055/oz by the final quarter of 2026, while J.P. Morgan now expects gold to reach $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026. However, one analyst predicts gold to trade at just $4,200 by Q4 2026, and Commerzbank predicts gold prices will reach $4,400 an ounce in 2026.

Considerations

A successful outcome from policies set by the Trump administration would accelerate economic growth and reduce geopolitical risk, leading to higher rates and a stronger US dollar, pushing gold lower. Conversely, falling yields, elevated geopolitical stress and a pronounced flight-to-safety would create exceptionally strong tailwinds for gold, supporting a sharp move higher, potentially surging 15%-30% in 2026 from current levels. The outcome hinges significantly on macroeconomic conditions and policy decisions that remain uncertain.

This description was generated by AI.