Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if the spot price of gold reaches or exceeds $7,000 USD per troy ounce at any point before January 1, 2027. Resolution will be determined using the spot price from major gold trading venues including COMEX futures, the London OTC market, or other widely-recognized gold price sources such as APMEX, Kitco, or Trading Economics. The market resolves NO if gold closes below $7,000 on December 31, 2026.

Background

Gold's current record high was achieved on January 28, 2026, at $5,602.22 per troy ounce. As of March 17, 2026, gold was trading at approximately $5,025 per ounce. This means gold would need to appreciate roughly 39% from current levels to reach $7,000.

Central bank and investor demand for gold is set to remain strong, averaging 585 tonnes a quarter in 2026. Around 755 tonnes of central bank purchases are expected in 2026. J.P. Morgan Global Research forecasts ongoing robust investor demand for gold, with around 250 tonnes of inflows into ETFs expected in 2026, while bar and coin demand is once again set to surpass an elevated 1,200 tonnes of annual demand.

Considerations

Gold has experienced unprecedented volatility in 2026. Gold gained nearly $1,100/oz in January 2026 alone, but the gold price declined almost $500 in a single day on January 30, 2026, only days after breaking the all-time record. Reaching $7,000 would require a move of similar magnitude to what occurred in January, compressed into the remaining nine months of the year.