The FDA declared an Ozempic shortage in early 2022. This allowed low-cost "compounding pharmacies" to avoid patents, producing and selling compounded versions of Ozempic to the benefit of dircet-to-consumer online pharmacies like Hims & Hers.

In October 2024, the FDA changed the Ozempic designation to "available," but the shortage will only end when it is designated as "resolved." However, Ozempic availability is a hotly contested political issue, and the FDA could go back and forth on the designation, especially with RFK in the picture and now this question of Greenland (Ozempic manufacturer Novo Nordisk is in Greenland).

This bet asks, at the end of December 31st 2025, will the FDA designate Ozempic as "resolved" (YES), or any other designation e.g. shortage, available, high demand (NO).