Will the first person have been successfully revived from cryonics by... ?
16
153
935
Nov 28
41%
2080
40%
2070
38%
2065
34%
2060
34%
2075
26%
2055
21%
2050
15%
2045
8%
2040
7%
2035
5%
2030

An individual has been revived from a state of cryopreservation, is believed to be conscious by the scientific consensus at the time, and can remain alive for >1 year. This includes a mind upload of the cryo-patient who is believed to be conscious and a continuation of the personhood of the cryo-patient by the scientific consensus at the time.

All years after the year this happens will resolve to YES, e.g. if it happens in 2031, then 2035, 2040 etc will all resolve in YES.
All options resolve to NO if this has not occurred by the last date.

Disclaimers:

  1. This question is part of Foresight’s 2023 Vision Weekends to help spark discussion amongst participants, so the phrasing and resolution criteria may be vaguer than I would normally like for this site. Apologies for that. We thought it would still be useful to make the market public to potentially inform other discussions.

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Both me and the author are going to need to be cryogenically frozen and revived for me to recieve my payout.

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