Hat tip to Longevity Bottlenecks study: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.08.18.553936v1.full.pdf

The market assumes the same criteria as the study, e.g.:

Assumes current bottlenecks are largely cleared (e.g. biomarker validation, overall lack of funding, slow and expensive models, lack of regulatory path, etc as described in the study).

Generally healthy: non-smoking, non-obese, non-substance abusing without major infectious diseases.

Disclaimers:

1. This question is part of Foresight’s 2023 Vision Weekends to help spark discussion amongst participants, so the phrasing and resolution criteria may be vaguer than I would normally like for this site. Apologies for that. We thought it would still be useful to make the market public to potentially inform other discussions.

2. If you would to add alternative answers, please do so in the comments!