Which intervention will add the most years of life to healthy people in 5 years of research?
Which intervention will add the most years of life to healthy people in 5 years of research?
11
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Telomere extending therapies
Stem cell therapies
Somatic reprogramming
Sirtuin targeting therapies
Senolytics
Rapamycin supplementation
Plasma/blood based therapies
Organ replacement
NAD targeting therapies
Microbiome replacement
Genetic medicine
Calorie restriction
Hat tip to Longevity Bottlenecks study: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.08.18.553936v1.full.pdf
The market assumes the same criteria as the study, e.g.:
Assumes current bottlenecks are largely cleared (e.g. biomarker validation, overall lack of funding, slow and expensive models, lack of regulatory path, etc as described in the study).
Generally healthy: non-smoking, non-obese, non-substance abusing without major infectious diseases.
Disclaimers:
This question is part of Foresight’s 2023 Vision Weekends to help spark discussion amongst participants, so the phrasing and resolution criteria may be vaguer than I would normally like for this site. Apologies for that. We thought it would still be useful to make the market public to potentially inform other discussions.
If you would to add alternative answers, please do so in the comments!
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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