Will Sarah Wagenknecht's BSW be part of the next German federal parliament?
57
12k
2025
54%
chance

Resolves YES if the BSW (Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht) will have any seats in the Bundestag after the next federal election.

If the party is named something else it still resolves YES.

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BSW is just the name of the Verein that wants to form the party. It's not clear when this party will be formed, or what it's name would be. I assume the question can resolve YES even if the party has a different name than "BSW"? And I assume it resolves NO if no party is formed by the Verein in time for the elections?

@tenidi your assumptions are correct

The next federal election is scheduled for 25, but this market closes at the end of 24?

@Control fixed

predicts YES

This includes the case of a single direct mandate, right? I.e. no Fraktionsstärke is needed.

@Thomas42 If I understand the new rules correctly, 5% of Zweitstimmen are required to win any seats in parlament:

"Aus dem Zusammenwirken der Fünf-Prozent-Klausel und dem Erfordernis der Zweitstimmendeckung folgt nach weggefallener Grundmandatsklausel, dass, auch wenn Kandidaten einer Partei in mehreren Wahlkreisen die meisten Erststimmen erhalten, die Partei aber weniger als fünf Prozent der Zweitstimmen erhält, dieser insgesamt keine Sitze zugeteilt werden."

https://www.bundestag.de/parlament/wahlen/wahlrecht-inhalt-975000.

predicts YES

@SimonKletteraffe interesting, I didn't know that!

predicts YES

@SimonKletteraffe It is possible that the Verfassungsgericht declares the new voting system unconstitutional. In that case, a singe direct mandate would be enough again.