In 2022, Paris announced a limited ban on cars in much of the city's 1st to 4th arrondissements. The ban is set to take effect in late 2023 or early 2024.
See the official announcment here.
According to Bloomberg, this ban is expected to reduce traffic by 55%, which translates to a reduction of 100,000 cars per day.
So, will the ban be a success?
The market will resolve YES if the ban achieves a reduction of at least 50% of pre-ban traffic or 100,000 cars per day (whichever number is available) by the end of June 2024.
However, if the ban is not in place or the effects are smaller than predicted, the market will resolve NO.
Please note that the resolution of this market might be delayed due to a lack of data.
1,000
3.00well, with the market creator account having been deleted, it doesn’t look like the market definition is even relevant anymore.
The linked announcement from Paris officials now explains that the center zone where limited circulation is planned, will only take place in Fall 2024 after the Olympic games.
Which means that by June 24, no observation of decreased car traffic will be available.
I’d add that the 1st to 4th arrondissements stand for less than 25% of downtown Paris, therefore banning most cars there would never result in Paris banning most cars, as the title suggests.