What will be the outcome of the saga around the deportation of Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia during the 2nd Trump term?
134
300Ṁ74k
resolved Jun 7
100%99.0%
Garcia returns to the US
0.0%
Garcia stays in (any) prison in El Salvador for the entire 2nd Trump term
0.0%
Garcia is dead
1.0%
Garcia is released but not returned to the US

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/11/us/politics/us-maryland-man-deportation-delay.html

  • Update 2025-04-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Return Method Clarification:

    • If Garcia returns to the US, whether by his own efforts, by being transported by El Salvador or the US, the outcome is resolved YES.

    • The method of return (self-initiated or government-assisted) does not affect the resolution.

    • It does not matter if he is taken to a US prison or to his family upon his return.

  • Update 2025-04-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Definition of Trump’s Term End:

    • The term is considered over when Trump leaves office, whether by death, resignation, or other means.

    • This clarification determines the period during which the market is active.

  • Update 2025-04-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification regarding death outcome:

    • If Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia is dead, the outcome is resolved based solely on that condition.

    • The return of his body to the US will not alter the outcome.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ9,841
2Ṁ1,182
3Ṁ895
4Ṁ665
5Ṁ611
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy