What will be the outcome of the saga around the deportation of Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia during the 2nd Trump term?
23
100Ṁ774
2029
58%
Garcia returns to the US
9%
Garcia stays in (any) prison in El Salvador for the entire 2nd Trump term
6%
Garcia is dead
27%
Garcia is released but not returned to the US

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/11/us/politics/us-maryland-man-deportation-delay.html

  • Update 2025-04-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Return Method Clarification:

    • If Garcia returns to the US, whether by his own efforts, by being transported by El Salvador or the US, the outcome is resolved YES.

    • The method of return (self-initiated or government-assisted) does not affect the resolution.

    • It does not matter if he is taken to a US prison or to his family upon his return.

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There seems to be overlap in the answers currently. There is a scenario where neither government facilitates his return, but he is released, and makes his own way back to the US. How would this resolve in that situation?

@jks that would be option 1, “Garcia returns to the US”, no?

@bens It’s the verb tense of Option 4, “Garcia is released but not returned to the US,” that allows overlap with Option 1. Option 4 seems to be conditional on whether or not El Salvador does the returning.

@jks sorry for the sloppy phrasing here. I didn't consider the scenario where he gets released but not actively returned to the US but would be allowed to return to the US. When I wrote this I saw the mode of return as a uninteresting implementation detail. If Garcia returns to the US by himself or is transported back by El Salvador or the US "Garcia returns to the US" should resolve YES. It also doesn't matter for that optin if he goes to a US prison or to his family.

@AlexanderTheGreater In that case you'll need to specify a timeframe - if he is released in El Salvador and returns to the US e.g. one year later, would that count? Given you specify "entire 2nd Trump term" for one of the answers, perhaps that's a natural deadline.

@chrisjbillington 👍 during 2nd term makes sense. After that it's a whole new world

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