Will Kilmar Abrego Garcia be deported to El Salvador before 2029?

Question

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kilmar Abrego Garcia is deported to El Salvador before January 1, 2029. Verification will be based on official announcements from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security or reputable news outlets reporting on his deportation. If no such deportation occurs by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

Kilmar Abrego Garcia, a Salvadoran national, entered the United States around 2011, fleeing gang violence in El Salvador. In 2019, an immigration judge granted him protection from deportation to El Salvador due to the threats he faced from local gangs. Despite this protection, he was mistakenly deported to El Salvador in March 2025, an action later acknowledged as an administrative error by U.S. authorities. Following legal challenges and a Supreme Court order, Abrego Garcia was returned to the U.S. in June 2025 to face federal charges related to human trafficking and alleged affiliations with the MS-13 gang. (theatlantic.com)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 23% chance (12 traders, as of Sep 19, 2025).