If there is AI Doom by 2030, the largest human casualties will be a result of...
7
125
490
2031
29%
Bio-Risk
11%
Drones
4%
"AI gets the nuclear codes"
4%
Chemical attack
4%
Machines boil oceans as heatsink for compute
4%
Disruption of global food supply chain
4%
AI doomer data center airstrike starts WW3 + nuclear winter
4%
AI hacking takes down global communications networks
8%
Paperclipped
29%
other

If "the Humans are Dead", what killed them?

Defaults to the highest casualty vector in lieu of extinction.

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I wrote a comment explaining my "other" position, but when I sent it, it didn't show up.

bought Ṁ10 of other YES

The biggest one will probably be bio as a first strike to weaken us and make it easier for itself to do things without being bothered too much by us, but for total extinction I think it will be mostly a combination of side-effects, long before the oceans are boiled as heat sink, which might also happen at some point.

I don't think it will actually bother to exterminate us directly if it's superintelligent, we'll pose no threat to it.

Disassembly for atoms might happen at a later time, but probably not for a while.

Maybe it will prevent us from using compute to train another AGI, but most of the deaths will occur due to side effects, things like extreme pollution, heat generation, obscuring the sun by capturing most of it for energy before building an actual Dyson sphere, mining and construction projects that don't take into account our survival, etc...

if people list other ones, I'll add to the poll for the next like week or so.