Resolution criteria
This is an independent multiple-choice market. Each option will resolve individually to YES, NO, or N/A based on whether its specific condition is met between November 4, 2026, and the date specified in the option.
Options containing conditional clauses ("If...") resolve N/A if their qualifying precondition does not occur during the specified evaluation window.
"If the US or Israel strike Iran Nov 4-30, will WTI oil futures be higher 10 days later?":
Precondition: Confirmed military kinetic strike conducted by the US military or Israeli Defense Forces against a target located within Iranian sovereign territory between November 4, 2026, 00:00 UTC and November 30, 2026, 23:59 UTC, reported by credible international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, AP). If no such strike occurs, resolves N/A.
Measurement: Compares the settlement price of the front-month NYMEX Light Sweet Crude Oil futures contract (WTI / CL on CME/NYMEX) on the trading day of the first qualifying strike (before the strike) to the settlement price on the trading day falling exactly 10 calendar days later (or the immediate next trading session if the 10th day is a non-trading day). Resolves YES if the later settlement price is strictly higher; otherwise NO.
"If a major strike occurs Nov 4-30, is a ceasefire or stand-down announced within 14 days of the initial strike?":
Precondition: A major kinetic military strike inside Iran between Nov 4 and Nov 30, 2026. If none occurs, resolves N/A.
Resolves YES if an official bilateral or unilateral ceasefire, formal cessation of hostilities, or public stand-down agreement is mutually or independently announced by official government or military leadership within 336 hours (14 calendar days) of the initial strike. Otherwise NO.
"Will the U.S. use a GBU-43/B MOAB against a target inside Iran between Nov. 4 and Nov. 30?":
Resolves YES if the United States military deploys or detonates at least one GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast (MOAB) munition against any designated target within the recognized borders or airspace of Iran between November 4, 2026, 00:00 UTC and November 30, 2026, 23:59 UTC, confirmed by the US Department of Defense or corroborated by consensus major reporting. Resolves NO if no such deployment occurs by November 30, 2026. (Does not resolve N/A).
"If a major strike occurs before Dec 1, will the conflict escalate so that both the S&P500 sells off ≥ 3% and WTI futures spike ≥15% at any point in the 2-week period after the initial strikes?":
Precondition: A major military strike occurs against Iran between November 4, 2026, and November 30, 2026, 23:59 UTC. If no strike occurs, resolves N/A.
Thresholds: Evaluated over the 14-day window following the initial strike date:
S&P 500: Daily close of the S&P 500 index (SPX) drops ≥ 3.00% relative to the close on the last trading day prior to the initial strike.
WTI Futures: Intraday or daily settlement price of the front-month NYMEX WTI crude futures contract rises ≥ 15.00% above the settlement price on the last trading day prior to the initial strike.
Resolves YES if both asset thresholds are satisfied at any point within the 14-day evaluation window; otherwise NO.
For newly added options, standard definitions apply, and the creator reserves discretion to specify explicit sources for resolution.
Background
The 2026 United States midterm elections are scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Geopolitical analysts and financial markets often monitor post-election windows for shifts in foreign policy posture or potential military escalations in the Middle East, particularly involving Iran's regional infrastructure or nuclear sites.
The GBU-43/B MOAB is a 21,600-pound precision-guided conventional munition delivered by cargo aircraft (MC-130), first deployed in combat against an ISIS cave complex in Nangarhar Province, Afghanistan, in April 2017. Financial market reactions to military conflict typically reflect through crude oil benchmark volatility (WTI and Brent) and broad-market equity repricing (such as the S&P 500).
1,000