Resolution criteria

This market is an independent multiple-choice market. Each option resolves independently to YES, NO, or N/A based on credible reporting from major news agencies (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, Bloomberg), official military/government statements, or verified satellite imagery analysis from established nonpartisan monitoring organizations (e.g., CSIS, ISIS).

Any user may add new answers. For each listed option, the criteria are defined as follows:

• US or Israel attacks Pickaxe Mountain before Dec 15, 2026:

  • Resolves YES if U.S. or Israeli military forces carry out a kinetic strike (air strike, cruise/ballistic missile attack, or drone strike) targeting the underground facility at Kuh-e Kolang Gaz La ("Pickaxe Mountain") south of Natanz on or before 11:59 PM UTC on December 15, 2026.

  • Resolves NO if no confirmed kinetic strike occurs by that deadline.

• Will all Iran–Iraq land border crossings close to commercial freight simultaneously for 48+ hours before Dec 31, 2026?:

  • Resolves YES if all official, active land border crossing points between Iran and Iraq (including the Iraqi Kurdistan region—e.g., Shalamcheh, Mehran, Khosravi, Chazzabeh, Parvizkhan, Bashmaq, and Haji Omaran) are confirmed closed to commercial freight traffic at the same time for at least 48 continuous hours before 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2026.

  • Resolves NO if no such simultaneous 48-hour commercial freight closure occurs across all crossings prior to the deadline. Temporary restrictions affecting only passenger travel or individual border points do not trigger a YES resolution.

• Will US/Israeli strikes cause a nationwide or multi-province power blackout in Iran lasting at least 24 hours before 2027?:

  • Resolves YES if direct kinetic strikes or officially acknowledged military cyber operations conducted by the United States or Israel cause an electrical grid failure resulting in a loss of power across at least three Iranian provinces (or a nationwide collapse) lasting at least 24 consecutive hours prior to January 1, 2027, 00:00 UTC.

  • Resolves NO if no such blackout occurs prior to the deadline, or if a qualifying blackout is solely caused by domestic grid strain, routine load-shedding, heatwaves, or accidental equipment failure unrelated to U.S./Israeli strikes.

• Will Iran hit a hyperscaler data center in the Gulf before 2027?:

  • Resolves YES if Iranian military forces (including the IRGC) or directly attributed state-directed strikes execute a physical or kinetic attack that strikes an operating data center owned or operated by a major cloud hyperscaler (specifically Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, or Google Cloud) located in a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) state before January 1, 2027, 00:00 UTC and after question creation time.

  • Resolves NO if no confirmed kinetic hit occurs against such a facility before the deadline. Unattributed cyberattacks or near misses causing no structural/facility impact do not qualify.

New options added by participants should define explicit thresholds, target entities, and cutoff dates. If an added option lacks explicit criteria, the market creator reserves the right to apply common-sense interpretations grounded in mainstream international media reporting.

Background

Pickaxe Mountain (Kūh-e Kolang Gaz Lā), located just south of the Natanz enrichment complex, has drawn international scrutiny as a heavily fortified underground site where Iran has excavated deep tunnel networks. Public commentary and strategic assessments have debated the feasibility of destroying the site with specialized conventional ordnance, such as the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) or the GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast (MOAB).

Cross-border freight between Iran and Iraq represents a major economic and logistical transit corridor, with closures historically driven by security alerts, political tensions, or religious pilgrimage surges. Hyperscale cloud operators—notably AWS, Microsoft, and Google—have expanded their regional cloud regions across GCC nations, including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Qatar, making critical digital infrastructure a key topic in broader regional conflict scenarios.