Resolution criteria

This market is an independent multiple choice market tracking various proposition bets regarding Anthropic's initial public S-1 registration statement filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Each answer resolves independently according to SEC EDGAR filings and exchange pricing data:

• SEC Filing Date & Timing: The baseline release time for all filing-related conditions is the timestamp at which the Form S-1 (or DRS/S-1 if publicly released) becomes viewable on the SEC EDGAR system.

• Perpetual Contract Answers (Binance): https://www.binance.com/en/futures/ANTHROPICUSDT

  • "Price right before the release" refers to the last traded price or the 1-minute candle close immediately prior to the SEC EDGAR publication timestamp on Binance's Anthropic perpetual contract market.

  • "3 hours after the S-1 is public" refers to the traded price exactly 180 minutes after the SEC timestamp.

  • If no pre-market perpetual contract for Anthropic exists or trades on Binance at the time of the S-1 filing, perpetual contract answers will resolve N/A.

• Customer Concentration: Resolves YES if the initial public S-1 (under Risk Factors, Note Disclosures, or Management's Discussion and Analysis) explicitly discloses that two or fewer distinct customers/counterparties collectively account for more than 20% of Anthropic's reported revenue (or annualized run-rate revenue). Otherwise resolves NO.

• Co-founder Voting Control: Resolves YES if the S-1 / final prospectus confirms that co-founders (Dario Amodei, Daniela Amodei, and any other designated co-founders) collectively retain at least 50.1% of the total voting power of all outstanding shares immediately post-offering. Otherwise resolves NO.

• Additional answers added by users must specify clear, unambiguous metrics verifiable via official SEC filings or public market data.

Background

Anthropic, PBC is a public-benefit corporation founded by former OpenAI researchers Dario Amodei, Daniela Amodei, and others. The company develops the Claude family of foundation models and operates under a governance structure involving the Long-Term Benefit Trust, a non-equity body designed to oversee safety commitments alongside standard corporate governance.

When private venture-backed technology companies file for an initial public offering (IPO) using Form S-1, disclosures typically reveal detailed financial statements, corporate governance structures (such as dual-class voting shares or founder supervoting equity), and customer concentration risks. Crypto derivatives venues (such as Binance, Hyperliquid, or others) often list pre-launch or perpetual contracts tracking implied valuations of late-stage private companies ahead of their public market listings.