Will South Africa see a complete collapse of the electricity grid in 2023.
16
310แน€7774
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

South Africa is facing ever worsening 'loadshedding'. Will there be a complete grid collapse due to increasing lack of maintenance to the power generating plants in 2023.

https://loadshed.theoutlier.co.za/

I will resolve the question to 'yes' should the loadshedding schedule no longer matter and all areas are off simultaneously.

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Considering the odds are currently at 4% and we have 2% of the year remaining & a reduced loadshedding outlook during the festive season, grid collapse in 2023 seems unlikely.

The insurance and reinsurance companies have added a grid failure exclusion to most all home insurance policies so their must be a reasonable belief this could happen as insurers are prepared to reject claims

Some graphs to peruse here:

https://loadshed.theoutlier.co.za/

Define 'complete collapse'? Also: if collapses, might be difficult to get an official source to confirm it.

@BrianCaulfield no longer facing daily blackouts in a controlled manner, but a complete blackout of all areas requiring a restart of the substations and generating plants.

@AlexEvers Is there a government source or a reliable NGO who can report such an event?

My concern is that a 'collapse' could happen, but that government and NGOs may be reluctant to characterize it as a collapse, since would be embarrassing to them, and trustworthy media may be reluctant to acknowledge a complete collapse, without an official source.



@BrianCaulfield In other words, if the situation is so chaotic that it leads to a 'complete collapse,' then the chaos that led to the collapse may also mean government bodies unable to acknowledge or admit.

@BrianCaulfield Great question tho!

@BrianCaulfield local online newspaper will report in large quantities. Anything important has a generator/solar/inverter backup as well as some starlink available in limited quantities.

@AlexEvers Thanks, I'm less worried about folks not having access to backup power and thus unable to report, than in government bodies actively disputing reports of a complete collapse, and attempting to obfuscate and redefine 'collapse,' should one happen, in order to save face.

@BrianCaulfield In other words, a government aligned to reality well enough to acknowledge a 'complete collapse,' should one happen, would likely be reality-based enough to prevent a collapse from happening.

@BrianCaulfield it's hard to say given the complete mismanagement of current infrastructure let alone everything else. I'm sure the opposition parties would be fast to call it a complete collapse.

I will resolve the question to 'yes' should the the loadshedding schedule no longer matter and all areas are off simultaneously.

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