I make a contribution to AI safety that is endorsed by at least one high profile AI alignment researcher by the end of 2026
12
1kṀ280
2026
59%
chance

Let's consider any AI alignment researcher who has written a sequence in either the Alignment Forum library or the LessWrong library "high profile" for the purposes of this question.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will someone commit violence in the name of AI safety by 2030?
65% chance
Will we solve AI alignment by 2026?
2% chance
Will Anthropic be the best on AI safety among major AI labs at the end of 2025?
87% chance
By the end of 2025, which piece of advice will I feel has had the most positive impact on me becoming an effective AI alignment researcher?
Will someone commit terrorism against an AI lab by the end of 2025 for AI-safety related reasons?
14% chance
Will the OpenAI Non-Profit become a major AI Safety research funder? (Announced by end of 2025)
17% chance
Will some piece of AI capabilities research done in 2023 or after be net-positive for AI alignment research?
81% chance
Will non-profit funding for AI safety reach 100 billion US dollars in a year before 2030?
38% chance
AI safety community successfully advocates for a global AI development slowdown by December 2027
14% chance
Will a Turing Award be given out for work on AI alignment or existential safety by 2040?
79% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy