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MANIFOLD
How predictive is the State of the Union market right now?
7
Ṁ175Ṁ2.1k
resolved Feb 27
100%21%
21 to 25 correct
0.9%
0 to 5 correct
0.9%
6 to 10 correct
3%
11 to 15 correct
32%
16 to 20 correct
40%
26+ correct
2%Other

The State of the Union market at time of writing (24th feb, 1:40am GMT) makes a fair few predictions with confidence (<35% or >65%). But how successfully predictive is that market? How many of the following statements will prove to be true of this long running market in the impending State of the Union event? Resolution is determined by the related market.

https://manifold.markets/10thOfficial/state-of-the-union-address-2026?r=QWxhblRlbm5hbnQ

Qualifying statements:

• It's given by Trump.

• It's not canceled.

• Biden is mentioned by Donald Trump.

• At least one elected democrat is in attendance.

• Jd Vance and Mike Johnson are sitting behind Donald Trump.

• AOC is not in attendance.

• Not every current supreme court justice is in attendance.

• The Board of Peace is mentioned.

• Trump does't mention Epstein.

• AI video is not used.

• 5 or more people coordinate outfits.

• Trump doesn't go to sleep, faint, or have a medical event.

• The present will get heckled or booed.

• Benjamin Netanyahu is not in attendance.

• Ilhan Omar is in attendance.

• China is mentioned by Trump.

• Trump, Vance, and Mike Johnson don't all wear the exact same (design of) tie.

• John Fetterman is in attendance.

• Trump says MAGA or Make America Great Again.

• Susan Colins is in attendance.

• There'll be some red in the presidents tie.

• Nobody is censured within a week because of the way they acted at the address.

• Trump mentions ICE.

• Trump mentions the Dow.

• Ukraine is mentioned.

• Nobody is removed from the chamber during the speech.

• Trumps address does not exceed 100 minutes.

• Trump says "border" 7 or more times.

• Trump says "mr speaker".

• Someone in the audience holds up a prop during the speech.

• Trump doesn't mention if he'll go to heaven or not.


Resolved to 20, was a miscount and actually 22, maybe a little more due to not everything being determined yet. Therefore it'll end up in the "21 to 25" category, good job Dscc on working it out more accurately than me.

Dscc, Cory, and Moonbunny will get managrams of their respective amounts. I'll wait a little while in case it's challenged again or all 4 of the yet to be determined ones end up being true. Feel free to so we get it right this time.

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hooray, resolved correctly now

@AlanTennant I'm pretty sure you counted wrong? This is my list(Sorry I couldn't help earlier, was sleeping)) using ctrl + f and verified by giving gemini the full API paste. You skipped a lot of them, like Benjamin Netanyahu not in attendence, not wearing the exact same design of tie, John Fetterman being in attendance, Susan Collins not being in attendance, etc. Technically it could still reach 26 correct resolutions, but the ICE mentions market is at 3%, and China/Censure markets are <50%, so very unlikely.

Correct

  1. It's given by Trump.

  2. It's not canceled.

  3. Biden is mentioned by Donald Trump.

  4. At least one elected democrat is in attendance.

  5. Jd Vance and Mike Johnson are sitting behind Donald Trump.

  6. Not every current supreme court justice is in attendance.

  7. AOC is not in attendance.

  8. Trump does't mention Epstein.

  9. AI video is not used.

  10. 5 or more people coordinate outfits.

  11. Trump doesn't go to sleep, faint, or have a medical event.

  12. The present will get heckled or booed.

  13. Benjamin Netanyahu is not in attendance.

  14. Ilhan Omar is in attendance.

  15. Trump, Vance, and Mike Johnson don't all wear the exact same (design of) tie.

  16. John Fetterman is in attendance.

  17. Susan Colins is in attendance.

  18. There'll be some red in the presidents tie.

  19. Trump mentions the Dow.

  20. Ukraine is mentioned.

  21. Trump says "border" 7 or more times.

  22. Trump doesn't mention if he'll go to heaven or not.

  23. Someone in the audience holds up a prop during the speech.

Wrong

  1. The Board of Peace is mentioned.

  2. Trump says MAGA or Make America Great Again.

  3. Nobody is removed from the chamber during the speech.

  4. Trumps address does not exceed 100 minutes.

  5. Trump says "mr speaker".

  6. China is mentioned by Trump.

  7. Trump mentions ICE.

    Not Resolved yet

  8. Nobody is censured within a week because of the way they acted at the address.

@Dssc Damn, I miscounted by 2.

@Dssc Resolved to 20, was a miscount and actually 22, maybe a little more due to not everything being determined yet. Therefore it'll end up in the "21 to 25" category, good job Dscc on working it out more accurately than me.

Dscc, Cory, and Moonbunny will get managrams of their respective amounts. I'll wait a little while in case it's challenged again or all 4 of the yet to be determined ones end up being true. Feel free to so we get it right this time.

No need to managram, mods can unresolve

@Dssc Excelent, well either way. I might end up with a negative mana count (although still a high net worth of mana) if mods re-resolve. I guess @mods for that eventuality.

@Dssc I'll send if nothing happens in the coming days, make sure everyone gets their proper winnings, It's only 127 mana.

For mod reference, "China is Mentioned by Trump" and "Trump mentions ICE" both ended up resolving to NO, while "Someone holds up a prop during ths speech" resolved to YES, so the final count is 23-24, guaranteed within the 21-25 range (Edited above comment as well to show this)

@mods Sorry for early re-ping but I don’t want them to managram (and I don’t know if edit tags add to queue?), resolution should change to “21-25” based on the above because of a miscount.

edit: not sure what I meant with this comment

Maybe moobunny just gets away with cheating.

@AlanTennant Anyone could have done that. In the future you can close a market so people can’t bet on it while you’re sorting out how to resolve it.

All cheaters because they knew the answer are disqualified, need help with how to do this.

@mods Sorry for the lack of clarity, I count 20 but not sure.

edit: resolved this

  1. "Mr Speaker" language used.

  1. Prop inclusion.

  1. Mentioned ICE

fail: No MAGA

  1. Ukraine during delegate coverage, does this count? edit: void, duplicate

16. llhan omar was there.

  1. Heckling happened.

  1. Trump not ill.