The State of the Union market at time of writing (24th feb, 1:40am GMT) makes a fair few predictions with confidence (<35% or >65%). But how successfully predictive is that market? How many of the following statements will prove to be true of this long running market in the impending State of the Union event? Resolution is determined by the related market.

https://manifold.markets/10thOfficial/state-of-the-union-address-2026?r=QWxhblRlbm5hbnQ

Qualifying statements:

• It's given by Trump.

• It's not canceled.

• Biden is mentioned by Donald Trump.

• At least one elected democrat is in attendance.

• Jd Vance and Mike Johnson are sitting behind Donald Trump.

• AOC is not in attendance.

• Not every current supreme court justice is in attendance.

• The Board of Peace is mentioned.

• Trump does't mention Epstein.

• AI video is not used.

• 5 or more people coordinate outfits.

• Trump doesn't go to sleep, faint, or have a medical event.

• The present will get heckled or booed.

• Benjamin Netanyahu is not in attendance.

• Ilhan Omar is in attendance.

• China is mentioned by Trump.

• Trump, Vance, and Mike Johnson don't all wear the exact same (design of) tie.

• John Fetterman is in attendance.

• Trump says MAGA or Make America Great Again.

• Susan Colins is in attendance.

• There'll be some red in the presidents tie.

• Nobody is censured within a week because of the way they acted at the address.

• Trump mentions ICE.

• Trump mentions the Dow.

• Ukraine is mentioned.

• Nobody is removed from the chamber during the speech.

• Trumps address does not exceed 100 minutes.

• Trump says "border" 7 or more times.

• Trump says "mr speaker".

• Someone in the audience holds up a prop during the speech.

• Trump doesn't mention if he'll go to heaven or not.