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omg I'm just now seeing the metaculus definition of "sever" and it is terrible and incorrect. welp, I guess I overcommitted to another market that had buried the lede, oh well

@Stralor i saw your bet and thought you must have mistaken the recently damaged Kerch bridge for the concept of "land bridge" 😂

@nickten ahaha also thaaat

@Stralor I was half asleep and went "well, the news is saying russia is temporarily cut off from crimea. this seems opportune even if I don't know the geography"

@Stralor anyway, it's all good. I bought in at a decent price and there's time yet for Ukraine to prove me right!

Arb opportunity:

https://manifold.markets/jack/will-ukraine-sever-the-land-bridge-58877ff44c53?r=QWt6enoxMjM

Will Ukraine Sever the Land Bridge to Crimea by September 30th, 2023?

12% chance. This is a mirror of https://insightprediction.com/m/154445/will-ukraine-sever-the-land-bridge-to-crimea-by-september-30th-2023 and resolves the same as Insight Prediction resolves. This is a market on whether Ukraine will sever Russia’s land bridge to Crimea at any point before Septembe…

There's also this one with very similar resolution criteria based on an Insight Prediction question: