Will Ukraine Sever the Land Bridge to Crimea by September 30th, 2023?
closes Oct 1

This is a mirror of https://insightprediction.com/m/154445/will-ukraine-sever-the-land-bridge-to-crimea-by-september-30th-2023 and resolves the same as Insight Prediction resolves.

This is a market on whether Ukraine will sever Russia's land bridge to Crimea at any point before September 31, 2023.  The primary resolution source will be the Institute for the Study of War (ISW): https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375. This market will resolve as yes if the ISW shows that Ukraine has broken Russia's land bridge, i.e., that Russia has no contiguous control over land that would allow it to drive to Crimea not counting the Kherch (Crimean) Bridge. This would require Ukraine taking back territory that includes at least some coastline between Henichesk and the Russian border near Taganrog, which would imply this territory not being colored in red on the map. For the purposes of this market, if the small strip of land to the south of "Molochnoye Ozera", south of Melitopol, is still red, it would classify as Russian continuing to have a land bridge from Russia, even if Ukraine bombs the bridge which actually connects that territory. 

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