Resolves YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled "Starship Orbital Flight Test", "Starship Orbital Launch", or similar, which shows a live feed of Starship and a countdown, NO if there is clearly no such livestream by market close, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happened at market close.
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A possible delay, tropical storm warning for Boca Chica
tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/211440.shtml
@ShadowyZephyr https://elontime.lol
@chrisjbillington He is off a lot, but his short term predictions seem to be significantly better than his long term predictions. Of the ones that have 20-90 days projected (this one is in the middle of that range) he was close enough on about half of them. So I give this like 45%.
@ShadowyZephyr how about this one. Six weeks counting from June 25th gives August 6th before factoring in Elon time, before static fires etc of the retrofitted vehicle can begin. Eight weeks from June 14th as in the above tweet gives NET August 9th for the flight test. I don't see it. Realistically I think ground testing with the new pad and retrofitted vehicle might begin in late August if we're lucky.
@chrisjbillington I think it's >25% but not >50%. The fact that we have almost an extra month matters a lot. Before end of july, no chance.
@ShadowyZephyr "That's within the time limit, why are you buying NO"
I mostly posted it because it's a new data point, then I bought no because it seemed overly optimistic. I mostly agree with your probability range, but 20 days ago the market was around 50%
Please ignore. Wrong thread.