
2
Will the next Starship Orbital Launch attempt occur before the end of July 2023?
62
closes Aug 1
11%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled "Starship Orbital Flight Test", "Starship Orbital Launch", or similar, which shows a live feed of Starship and a countdown, NO if there is clearly no such livestream by market close, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happened at market close.
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I think it's a maybe 50% chance SpaceX will be technically ready, but it will take longer than 3 months to get another launch licence.
I hope I'm wrong but I feel it in my waters

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15 YES payouts
Ṁ3,583
Ṁ444
Ṁ247
Ṁ136
Ṁ130
Ṁ112
Ṁ90
Ṁ32
Ṁ32
Ṁ30
Ṁ5
43 NO payouts
Ṁ1,945
Ṁ720
Ṁ660
Ṁ630
Ṁ598
Ṁ484
Ṁ289
Ṁ201
Ṁ166
Ṁ138
Ṁ136
Ṁ129
Ṁ129
Ṁ76
Ṁ76
Ṁ69
Ṁ40



















