Occasional arb opportunity here

Anyone willing to update this probability given recent events?

Huh, given that all Ding Liren has to do is show up, why is the market still at like 80%?

@Qoiuoiuoiu it’s not a given since he’s a volatile player who’s taken long stretches off and talked openly about mental challenges? On balance he still plays but it wouldn’t be the most shocking thing in the world if he withdrew

@diadematus ah, that's a good point. I didn't think about that...

which meaning of "defend"?

defend = appear to play w/challenger

or defend = defeat the challenger and retain world champion title

@Ernie Defend as in to show up to the match. He doesn't necessarily need to win.