
Will AI be useful, but not really change the world... by 2030 ?!
Will AI be useful, but not really change the world... by 2030 ?!
25
1kṀ10052030
29%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Despite all the hype... will AI not have much impact, either positive or negative by 2030?
Will it just be another incremental step forward that is quickly adopted in to everyday life... so no Utopia nor Doomsday, just meh!
Will resolve by personal judgment on 1st January 2030
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Will AI wipe out AI before 2030?
9% chance
Will AI take over the world by 2100?
49% chance
Will AI wipe out AI before the year 2030?
4% chance
Will AI wipe humanity by 2030?
14% chance
Will AI wipe out "humanity" before 2030?
82% chance
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?
3% chance
Will AI be broadly considered "boring"/commonplace/unremarkable by 2030?
38% chance
Will AI cause mass unemployment... by 2030 ?
19% chance
Will AI create utopia for humans by the year 2100?
46% chance
Will there be a massive catastrophe caused by AI before 2030?
29% chance
Sort by:
@AitchKay There should be a little pencil icon if you hover over the 2024 to change the close time. It would also be good to edit the market description to say something about how it resolves, e.g. do you plan to use your subjective judgment at a particular time?
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will AI wipe out AI before 2030?
9% chance
Will AI take over the world by 2100?
49% chance
Will AI wipe out AI before the year 2030?
4% chance
Will AI wipe humanity by 2030?
14% chance
Will AI wipe out "humanity" before 2030?
82% chance
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?
3% chance
Will AI be broadly considered "boring"/commonplace/unremarkable by 2030?
38% chance
Will AI cause mass unemployment... by 2030 ?
19% chance
Will AI create utopia for humans by the year 2100?
46% chance
Will there be a massive catastrophe caused by AI before 2030?
29% chance