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If you liked that market, try THIS one:

https://manifold.markets/BenjaminShindel/which-set-of-words-is-random?r=QmVuamFtaW5TaGluZGVs

Which set of words is random?

50% chance. I used https://randomwordgenerator.com/ to generate 3 random words. I used the first three words I generated. I then came up with three words on my own, after seeing the first set of words. I did not use any randomized method for selecting my set of words. I used an online coin flip to assign the order of the two sets of words. Bet for the set of words that you believe to be the RANDOM set. (if you think the "YES" set of words is randomly generated, bet "YES", if you think the "NO" set of words is randomly generated, bet "NO". I will obviously not bet in this market. I took a picture of the random word generator that will have a time stamp on my iphone. If people like this market, I will iterate on it and make more exciting/strategically interesting versions :) YES: consideration gossip orchestra NO: fervent production rhyme

This was... silly

Welp, I don't think I've ever been this wrong on a market lol

If you asked me to pick a random number from 1 to 100, I'd be much more likely to pick something like 87 than something like 2, because 2 doesn't "feel" random enough. Glad my intuition was right.

@evergreenemily I thought that then assumed it was the opposite to trick us

I hate this website. I'm out

manifold has serious and fun markets. this is a fun one, no point in being mad lol

Here's the resolution: 87 was the random number I thought of and 2 was the number I got from google's random number generator. I gotta admit: When I rolled that 2, I wanted to reroll it to get a more "random" number, but then I realized that would go against the integrity of this silly little market...

Seems like a few of you had a hunch that I wouldn't pick an "unusual" number such as 2 intentionally. So congrats!

Did you use the first random number, or roll multiple times?

@LukeViggers i used the very first number i got.

2 is obviously a lot less random

@Toby96 What analysis did you use and what's your p-value?

@Toby96 is this anthropic reasoning?

@Agh Not gonna claim that this is based on an in depth statistical analysis, but if you look at reddit posts were people have asked a large group of humans to pick a random number between 1 and 100 (eg. https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/iiafkd/oc_i_asked_100_people_to_pick_a_number_between/ https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/88m2mj/pick_a_number_from_1100_results_from_6750/) humans consistently pick 2 more frequently than 87.

@Toby96 Based on a quick simulation I coded up in python, the probabilities should be as follows:

P(2 is human generated) = 0.61

P(87 is human generated) = 0.39

This is assuming that Agh's RNG follows the average redditor's RNG, a pretty big assumption. I'm still putting in a limit order of 500 on YES up to 55% for anyone who wants to bet against me.