Resolution criteria
Parliamentary elections are to be held in Hungary on 12 April 2026. The market resolves to the total number of seats won by the Tisza Party in the 199-seat National Assembly. 106 seats are elected in single-member constituencies by first-past-the-post voting, while 93 are elected from a single nationwide constituency by modified proportional representation. Resolution will be based on official results from the Hungarian National Election Commission (Nemzeti Választási Bizottság).
Background
The Tisza Party (Respect and Freedom Party) is a conservative and pro-European political party in Hungary founded in 2020, which rapidly rose to prominence when former Fidesz party member Péter Magyar joined. In the European Parliament election in May 2024, Tisza came second with almost 30% of the vote and 7 seats. The opposition Tisza Party needs to win by around 3–5 points in the national vote in order to get a majority in the Assembly due to electoral system design.
Polling shows significant divergence depending on the pollster. According to a Median poll published in late February 2026, Tisza widened its lead to 20 percentage points among decided voters, with Tisza leading 55% to 35% among those certain to vote. However, the Nézőpont Institute published results showing Fidesz at 46% compared to Tisza's 40%. In January 2026, political scientist Gábor Török observed that large differences between government- and non-government-affiliated pollsters was a new phenomenon in Hungarian politics, suggesting the differences were "unexplainable on research grounds".
Considerations
Electoral district boundaries were redrawn in December 2024, with the number of districts in Budapest decreasing from 18 to 16, while Pest County increased from 12 to 14. Hungary's electoral system systematically favours winning parties; a Tisza victory in the popular vote does not guarantee a parliamentary majority, as Fidesz may secure a majority even if the opposition receives more votes overall. Hungarian citizens living abroad without registered residence in Hungary are entitled to vote by mail for national party lists only, and since 2010 a large majority have consistently supported Fidesz, strengthening their national list totals.
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@andri It’s the ballots that were cast at another domestic polling station, while away from home, or in a foreign representation if they are abroad. Those ballots need to be transferred to the national election office, then sorted by districts, then transferred to the said district, and shuffled in with the designated polling stations local ballots before being opened and counted. So there are always around 2-300000 ballots that are counted 6 days after election are done. That is the last ~2%, and only the most close districts can flip on that count, like the 3 districts that did out of the 106 that there are.