https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener
Question in reference to this comment thread:
lukres: I feel I cannot treat Manifold seriously as long as this market stays so high.
lukres: @lukres Though it’s mostly just one guy keeping it there isn’t it?
firstuserhere: @lukres Nope! I entered the market not so long ago, it was at the same price for months before I entered.
firstuserhere: @lukres The only thing that has changed is - the bet amounts have gone up. Earlier the same price ~50% was the equilibrium for a long time, with lower bet amounts
Zardoru: @firstuserhere Come on, you have more than 80% of the Yes shares.
firstuserhere: @Zardoru That's because I had more available mana; I've not moved the market more than 3-4% points.
Zardoru: @firstuserhere without all your mana, market would probably not have stayed above 50%. If I don't buy at 53-55% five participants or more will happily take the bid. In the other way, not so much.
firstuserhere: @Zardoru I'm curious about what you say. I'll cancel my limit orders and not bet on the market for the rest of September. Let's see what price the market settles at. 40? 30? 20? Sounds good?
firstuserhere: @firstuserhere Okay, canceled all my limit orders. Let's see.
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The experiment had a clear effect, but not as much as going to 40%. It went to from about 53% to 43%, so that quite something, but it didn't last. Some new Yes betters came to the market, maybe expecting it to go back to 53% after @firstuserhere return.
@Jai I'll close it at a random time on Oct 1 (I'll generate the time and post a hash that will prove it the day before)