Background
The Trump administration has recently initiated deportations of non-citizens, particularly alleged members of the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua, to El Salvador under the Alien Enemies Act of 1798. This law allows for deportation of non-citizens with minimal due process during declared times of war or invasion. President Trump has declared such a state in relation to gang activity.
U.S. citizens have constitutional protections against deportation, including the 14th Amendment which guarantees due process and equal protection under the law. Deportation of a U.S. citizen would be unprecedented in modern times and would likely face significant legal challenges.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve as YES if, before December 31, 2025:
A person with verified U.S. citizenship is deported by the Trump administration to El Salvador
This market will resolve as NO if:
No U.S. citizen is detained by the U.S. government and subsequently sent to El Salvador by the Trump administration by December 31, 2025
A U.S. citizen is detained for the intent of being sent to El Salvador, but legal challenges prevent the actual deportation from occurring
Deportations any time in 2025, including those that already took place prior to this question being opened, all count.
(clarifications added 4/15/2025)
For purposes of the question, a "U.S. Citizen" will be defined as anybody who, at any point between 1/1/2025 and 12/31/2025, was commonly understood to be a U.S. Citizen. "El Salvador" will be defined as any physical location which, at any point between 1/1/2025 and 12/31/2025, was commonly understood to have been part of El Salvador.
If the U.S. were to attempt to send a citizen to El Salvador, it is likely that the process would involve some combination of novel legal interpretations, new executive or legislative acts and definitions, new judicial precedents, official denial of well documented facts and circumstances. These maneuvers generally do not impact the spirit of this question or its resolution even if they impact the legality of the operation or the way that the U.S. Government understands any of the words or concepts used in the question, resolution criteria, or description. Such changes or rationalizations can be safely ignored for purposes of forecasting this question.
Since this question is spurring clarification requests, as of 4/15/2025 I have completely divested my small position in the question (at a loss), and will not trade the question going forward, to avoid any appearance of conflict of interest.
Considerations
The deportation of a U.S. citizen would represent a significant departure from established legal precedent and constitutional protections. While the Trump administration has expanded deportation efforts, current actions have focused exclusively on non-citizens. Any attempt to deport a U.S. citizen would likely trigger immediate legal challenges and judicial intervention.
Update 2025-03-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update to Criteria:
Detention and Deportation: Any context in which the United States detains a citizen and then sends them to El Salvador will count.
Citizenship Status: The market will resolve as YES for any person who has at any point been a U.S. citizen, even if the government revokes or attempts to revoke their citizenship.
Update 2025-05-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Action must involve the Federal government (Trump administration). Deportation carried out 100% by a state alone will not count.
If both a state and the Federal government are involved, the market will resolve YES. Sufficient Federal involvement includes, but is not limited to:
Operating the transportation to El Salvador
Having custody of the prisoner(s) at any point
Detaining the prisoner(s)
Selecting prisoner(s) for removal
Negotiating the arrangement with El Salvador
Explicitly authorizing the action (e.g., via executive order)
If Federal involvement is unclear:
A court ruling confirming involvement resolves YES.
A claim of credit by President Trump or a senior administration official resolves YES.
Otherwise, clear and convincing evidence of Federal involvement is required to resolve YES.
Without these conditions met, the market will resolve NO in cases of unclear Federal involvement.
1,000People are also trading
Would we count it if a state does this too? Or dores it have to be federal? https://www.al.com/politics/2025/04/alabama-could-send-inmates-to-foreign-prisons-under-proposed-bill-our-prisons-are-too-soft.html
@Marnix there has to be some Federal involvement. If it is done 100% by the state alone, it would not count, as the question specifies the Trump administration and that was my intent.
However, if a state and Federal government were both involved, it would resolve yes. Sufficient involvement would include but not be limited to any of the following: operating the transportation to El Salvador, having custody of the prisoners at any point in the process, detaining the prisoners, selecting prisoners for removal, negotiating the arrangement with El Salvador, authorizing it explicitly via executive order or other proclamation, etc.
If it is not 100% clear whether the Feds had any involvement, a court ruling or claim of credit by Trump or a senior administration official will be sufficient to resolve yes. Without either, there would need to be clear and convincing evidence of involvement to resolve yes. Else, it will resolve no.
@Marnix I would resolve that as "yes". I am trying to be as predictable as possible in resolution, without being able to anticipate every possible scenario.
As I said in response to another resolution question a month ago, "Any context in which the United States detains a citizen and then sends them to El Salvador will count. I should also clarify, this will count for any person who has at any point been a U.S. citizen, even if the government revokes or attempts to revoke their citizenship."
Here, similarly, I will clarify that this will count for any location which at any point from the writing of the question until resolution was ever considered to be part of El Salvador, even if the government(s) revokes or attempts to revoke that status.
I hope the spirit of the question is clear. Will somebody who is currently commonly understood to be a U.S. citizen be detained by the U.S. government and be sent to a location currently commonly understood to be El Salvador? Various legal tricks and shenanigans to obfuscate the situation will not impact the resolution of the question.
@AlexanderTheGreater Yes. Any context in which the United States detains a citizen and then sends them to El Salvador will count.
I should also clarify, this will count for any person who has at any point been a U.S. citizen, even if the government revokes or attempts to revoke their citizenship.