This market will resolve to which prediction is the most accurate based on the formula outline below. For the purposes of this market, the winner of the Senate will be the party that AP declares will hold a majority in the Senate as a result of the 2026 midterms (this includes the tie-breaking vote of the vice president). If there is a tie, the market that had the most accurate prediction at 8 PM on the day of the midterms will win.

Equation:

The accuracy of a market's forecasts shall be measured using a Linear Decreasing Time-Weighted Brier Score. The purpose of this scoring rule is to reward markets that make accurate forecasts earlier in the life of the market, rather than only shortly before the outcome becomes known.

Markets will be measured once per calendar day (between 5am and 9am ET).

Each day is assigned a weight that decreases linearly over time:

• August 1 receives weight 95,

• August 2 receives weight 94,

• ...

• November 2 receives weight 2,

• November 3 receives weight 1.

Therefore,

• A score of 0 represents a perfect forecasting record.

• Lower scores indicate greater forecasting accuracy.

• Earlier forecasts have greater influence on the final score than later forecasts because the daily weights decrease linearly over time.

Should there be a dispute, the rules provided will control over the answer to the question itself. While, the question is intended to provide an easy way for people to bet on their beliefs, it is not the end all be all, and all traders should look at the rules. Please don't hesitate to ask clarifying questions in the comments. In the unlikely event of significant ambiguity regarding whether the resolution criteria have been met. I reserve the right to resolve a question to a percentage that I deem fair. I will give notice before I do this.