Will the People's Liberation Army Navy lose at least one surface vessel before 2030?
18
แน€865
2029
56%
chance

Resolves the same way as the corresponding Metaculus question.

Resolution Criteria

This question will resolve Yes if a surface ship belonging to the People's Liberation Army Navy is lost prior to 2030 according to a consensus of credible sources.

"Lost" will be defined as the sinking of a vessel, whether deliberate (scuttling), accidental, or as a result of warfare.

Fine Print

  • The vessels suitable for a positive resolution are listed on this Wikipedia page.

  • The vessel must be a "surface ship" which displaces at least 400 tonnes; "auxiliary vessels" do not count.

  • In the event that a deliberate or accidental loss of a surface ship will be denied by the PLAN, Metaculus Admins will use credible sources and their best judgement to consider whether the known information is sufficient for a positive resolution.

  • Note that the definition of "lost" in this question requires the ship to be sunk. Therefore, a ship that is decommissioned, scrapped, or abandoned without being sunk will not count.

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