Will the People's Liberation Army Navy lose at least one surface vessel before 2030?

Resolves the same way as the corresponding Metaculus question.

Resolution Criteria

This question will resolve Yes if a surface ship belonging to the People's Liberation Army Navy is lost prior to 2030 according to a consensus of credible sources.

"Lost" will be defined as the sinking of a vessel, whether deliberate (scuttling), accidental, or as a result of warfare.

Fine Print

  • The vessels suitable for a positive resolution are listed on this Wikipedia page.

  • The vessel must be a "surface ship" which displaces at least 400 tonnes; "auxiliary vessels" do not count.

  • In the event that a deliberate or accidental loss of a surface ship will be denied by the PLAN, Metaculus Admins will use credible sources and their best judgement to consider whether the known information is sufficient for a positive resolution.

  • Note that the definition of "lost" in this question requires the ship to be sunk. Therefore, a ship that is decommissioned, scrapped, or abandoned without being sunk will not count.

Get แน€600 play money

More related questions