7. Will there be a major flare-up (worse than past 10 years) in Israel/Palestine conflict in 2022?
Basic
23
Ṁ923resolved Feb 1
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
From Scott Alexander's US/World predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest
Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will the current Israel-Palestine conflict end in 2024?
7% chance
Will a regional war break out in the Middle East before the end of 2024?
61% chance
Will more than 5000 people die in a conflict between Israel and Hezbollah/Lebanon during 2024?
20% chance
Will Israel come to blows by 2024 year end?
2% chance
Will there be a civil war in Israel before 2025?
4% chance
Will the Israel - Hamas war spread to another location in 2024?
10% chance
Will the 3rd intifada begin in 2024?
5% chance
Will the Israel - Hamas war spread to another location in 2025?
45% chance
Will there be riots involving Jewish / Arab citizens in Israel comparable to the 2021 riots as a result of 10/7 attack?
9% chance
Will the war in Israel/Palestine escalate to World War Three on or before January 1, 2024?
2% chance