The current state of affairs in Israel is very bad, to say the least.
There is speculation that the armed forces will stay in the right side of history.
This market resolves to YES if there's a Civil War, a forced change of the status quo (either by the army or by a para-military group), an auto-coup, or a revolution. This requires the use or at least a significant threat of use of violence.
The current matters currently discussed in the Knesset aren't considered a coup for this market.
I'll rely on the Wikipedia and the mainstream media to adjudicate this market.
I won't bet.
1,000
3.00The question is great and I’d suggest clarifying the title and description to better communicate your intention.
The question seems to be more “will a group gain control of the Israeli government by force?” instead of the general “come to blows” and “change of the status quo”.
Does an attempt count or does it have to be successful? What is a paramilitary group? Do the instigators need to be citizens/residents of Israel? Can a social media post communicate threat, or is an action (i.e., tailing elected officials) sufficient? Is intimidating legislators to change the government via democratic means considered a revolution? Do the instigators need to assume power directly, or is it sufficient for them to assassinate officials so that their favored individuals will gain power?
@oh
> The question seems to be more “will a group gain control of the Israeli government by force?” instead of the general “come to blows” and “change of the status quo”.
What almost happened in Russia earlier this year by the late Prigozhin would have counted as yes.
> Does an attempt count or does it have to be successful?
Yes, but it needs to have a significant use of force. The 2016 non-coup in Turkey would have counted.
> Does an attempt count or does it have to be successful? What is a paramilitary group? Do the instigators need to be citizens/residents of Israel?
Does not to be successful. A paramilitary group would be a group not part of the official army that has weapons and is willing to overthrow the coallition by force. Israelis would need to be protagonists, but a color revolution would count.
> Can a social media post communicate threat, or is an action (i.e., tailing elected officials) sufficient?
Unlikely.
> Is intimidating legislators to change the government via democratic means considered a revolution?
Unlikely. I'll rely on how the mainstream media and Wikipedia choose to describe the event. But I don't see them calling it a revolution.
> Do the instigators need to assume power directly, or is it sufficient for them to assassinate officials so that their favored individuals will gain power?
Nope. If they find a fellow in the coalition willing not to overthrow democracy and the guy takes power, it'd count. In 1955, the legalist coup in Brazil was exactly that. The army sieged congress and forced the congress to impeach the speaker of the house (then serving as president, during the lame duck period before the leftist president would assume) and put the president of the senate in power for some weeks until the president-elected would be able to take power.
@MP Interesting.
“Will any Israelis violently attempt to seize state power by EOY of 2024?”
Then define Israelis (citizens? residents?), violence (what counts as a threat? how large scale does it have to be?), and state power (government officials? government agencies? state-funded institutions? state-subsidized institutions?).