7. Will there be a major flare-up (worse than past 10 years) in Israel/Palestine conflict in 2022?
23
35
Ṁ923Ṁ160
resolved Feb 1
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
From Scott Alexander's US/World predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest
Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
Get Ṁ200 play money
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ16 | |
2 | Ṁ12 | |
3 | Ṁ9 | |
4 | Ṁ8 | |
5 | Ṁ4 |
Related questions
Will Israel and Iran be engaged in full scale war by the end of June 2024?
10% chance
Will there be a war between Iran and Israel by the end of 2024
30% chance
Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2024?
51% chance
Will israel and hizballa significantly increase their conflict during the first half of 2024
56% chance
Will the current Israel-Palestine conflict end in 2024?
24% chance
Will a new major war break out in 2024?
9% chance
Will the Israel/Hamas conflict conclusively end in 2024 ?
23% chance
Will the Israel-Gaza war last more than 2 years?
20% chance
Will Israel come to blows by 2024 year end?
15% chance
Will there be riots involving Jewish / Arab citizens in Israel comparable to the 2021 riots as a result of 10/7 attack?
14% chance