7. Will there be a major flare-up (worse than past 10 years) in Israel/Palestine conflict in 2022?
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160Ṁ923resolved Feb 1
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From Scott Alexander's US/World predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest
Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Scott put 5% and I agree it should be low, would need to be bigger than Protective Edge. Thankfully, Hamas' rocket supplies got wrecked in 2021.
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