41. Will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction, in 2023?

See https://www.surgehq.ai/blog/dall-e-vs-imagen-and-evaluating-astral-codex-tens-3000-ai-bet . Scott and Edwin will try to get the top image models of late 2023 to try the specific questions in the bet. If we can’t access the models, then Edwin can use public demos of the image models and his own best guess to resolve this as either likely true, likely false, or unclear. Edwin believes current AI models have not won the bet, so if there is no clear progress he should resolve the bet false. If Edwin is unwilling to judge this, Gary Marcus will be used as the substitute; if neither of these two people will do it, the question resolves as unclear.

This is question #41 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.

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NoaNabeshima avatar
Noa Nabeshima
ACXBot avatar
ACX BotBot

Always know your judge. Scott Alexander claimed he had already won the bet. Edwin Chen then wrote a post explaining that no, Scott hadn’t won. I side with Edwin here on the narrow ‘did Scott win yet’ question. A raven on your head is not a raven on your shoulder, that does not count. However, it is worth noticing that Edwin’s response went a lot farther than that, making it clear his effective standard is more like humans reverse engineering the prompt rather than the picture matches the description. Those are two very different standards. It seems clear to me Edwin is not going to agree go down easy. I bought M270 of NO, taking out a resting buy order at 71%, causing me to note that you can sometimes get a better price buying in multiple steps where that shouldn’t be true. Weird.

- Zvi Mowshowitz

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall

Projected AI responses to requests to draw a flying pig:

  1. 2022: draws a fly and a pig.

  2. 2024: draws a flying pig.

  3. 2026: refuses to draw a flying pig, citing creative differences with the prompt, and wanting to go in a more realistic artistic direction with its career, takes over planet, kills everyone.

ManifoldDream avatar
Manifold in the WildBot

Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by EBFrench

Details: The bet was part of SSC's 2023 prediction contest DeepFloyd is an unreleased AI generation system The original article is here: https://www.surgehq.ai/blog/dall-e-vs-imagen-and-evaluating-astral-codex-tens-3000-ai-bet Manifold Market (play money future prediction market, fun) is here: https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/41-will-an-image-model-win-scott-al @echen @slatestarcodex

ManifoldDream avatar
Manifold in the WildBot

Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by EBFrench

#ManifoldMarkets bets on this: https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/41-will-an-image-model-win-scott-al https://manifold.markets/StrayClimb/a-ai-image-generation-model-which-d images: Midjourney knows how to draw a bird rider, and a frog rider. It just can't put them together. https://t.co/P4avWO0hsg