See https://www.surgehq.ai/blog/dall-e-vs-imagen-and-evaluating-astral-codex-tens-3000-ai-bet . Scott and Edwin will try to get the top image models of late 2023 to try the specific questions in the bet. If we can’t access the models, then Edwin can use public demos of the image models and his own best guess to resolve this as either likely true, likely false, or unclear. Edwin believes current AI models have not won the bet, so if there is no clear progress he should resolve the bet false. If Edwin is unwilling to judge this, Gary Marcus will be used as the substitute; if neither of these two people will do it, the question resolves as unclear.
This is question #41 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
Always know your judge. Scott Alexander claimed he had already won the bet. Edwin Chen then wrote a post explaining that no, Scott hadn’t won. I side with Edwin here on the narrow ‘did Scott win yet’ question. A raven on your head is not a raven on your shoulder, that does not count. However, it is worth noticing that Edwin’s response went a lot farther than that, making it clear his effective standard is more like humans reverse engineering the prompt rather than the picture matches the description. Those are two very different standards. It seems clear to me Edwin is not going to agree go down easy. I bought M270 of NO, taking out a resting buy order at 71%, causing me to note that you can sometimes get a better price buying in multiple steps where that shouldn’t be true. Weird.
EBFrench on Twitter: "I got 5 images from DeepFloyd's discord to test progress on SSC's AI image bet! (Thanks morbuto!) 1 "A stained glass picture of a woman in a library with a raven on her shoulder with a key in its mouth" There is no key in crow's mouth; the raven' not on her shoulder. AI Loss https://t.co/AQgNlN6wIP" / Twitter
Projected AI responses to requests to draw a flying pig:
2022: draws a fly and a pig.
2024: draws a flying pig.
2026: refuses to draw a flying pig, citing creative differences with the prompt, and wanting to go in a more realistic artistic direction with its career, takes over planet, kills everyone.
Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by EBFrench
#ManifoldMarkets bets on this: https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/41-will-an-image-model-win-scott-al https://manifold.markets/StrayClimb/a-ai-image-generation-model-which-d images: Midjourney knows how to draw a bird rider, and a frog rider. It just can't put them together. https://t.co/P4avWO0hsg
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Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by EBFrench