21. Will Donald Trump make at least one tweet in 2023?
resolved Aug 25

Resolves positively if the @realdonaldtrump account tweets with Trump's implied approval, even if the tweet was written by an intern. Does not resolve positively if the account is hacked or tweets apparently without Trump's approval.

This is question #21 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.

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As Jack said we tend to resolve these markets rather than waiting for Scott's confirmation to return capital. We can always re-resolve under extraordinary circumstances.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Even if this is 100% to resolve yes this is trading too high given expected duration...

predicted NO

@ZviMowshowitz Usually prediction markets have the opposite problem. A welcome reversal.

predicted NO

@ZviMowshowitz Will it be resolved only when the market closes, ie, 1/1/24?

bought Ṁ1 of NO

@ZviMowshowitz Would be quite a plot twist if Trump did not approve it.

predicted NO

I expect the market to resolve soon. Past markets by ACXBot have.

The standard procedure has been: Resolve when the event happens, and in the (extraordinarily unlikely) event that Scott rules differently, re-resolve

@anne lol

predicted NO

One dude writes a comment that this is a NO because X posts don't count as Tweets - market tanks.

One dude posts a fake Truth Social post, and without anyone checking Truth Social to see if it's real - market soars.


predicted NO


Act now, check later. That's how it usually goes. Don't want to be left behind, while checking to see if source is credible.

Trump hasn't made any comments or anything about any desire to use twitter. rather, he's talked about how he's on truthsocial instead. Yet, people still bet Yes here.

bought Ṁ15 of YES

@higherLEVELING Because truthsocial is in danger, it's losing money.

predicted YES

> Act now, check later.

That's my motto along with "buy high, sell low".

bought Ṁ10 of YES
predicted NO

@ErlendLken I'm calling this fake. Provide an actual link and I'll apologize.

Edit: I searched his truth social for the last day and didn't see this post.

predicted YES

@parhizj I don’t know I saw it on Twitter 🤷‍♂️

sold Ṁ48 of NO

@ErlendLken That’s fake. It’s not on his truth social feed.

predicted NO

@ErlendLken Don't trust twitter posts! 😂

predicted YES


bought Ṁ0 of YES

is there a reason this market cratered?

oh just one guy nvm

Not calling a tweet a tweet is silly. Corporations don't define words. People (and dictionaries) do.

predicted YES

In ancient English, the word book was pronounced "byyke". Nowadays, nobody says that word, so I guess from their POV, no books are published in the modern world, because no "byyke's" are published.

^^^^ I do not agree with this argument.

predicted NO

There is still a chance that tweets are reborn. But i think it is much less than 1/3

predicted NO

@KongoLandwalker While the market's resolution hinges on Scott Alexander's interpretation, the most reasonable interpretation is that X posts ARE tweets. If Donald Trump changed his name, should this market resolve to NO? If dictionaries change all the definitions of the word 'one' to '2', should the market resolve NO if only one tweet was posted?

predicted NO

@JamesColiar "if donald trump changes name". I would make another analogy: if Donald Trump is dead, but his finger falls on the send button, is Donald Trump making the action?

Some entities are not continuous in time. As long as i am alive, i am considered continuous, even though all my molecules get regularly replaced.

Some entities are not. Change 1 line in constitution or quickly replace 10 gov positions (coup) and the country might be considered a new entity by others.

Twitter (as a mix of community and tech) lost all his spiritual features i knew him for. Now it is a milking machine. I consider the entity dead.

predicted YES

@KongoLandwalker well, they still have exclusive legal right to all historical tweets.

predicted YES

@KongoLandwalker well I never tweet. My dead skin cells are actually the ones pushing the button, right before they flake off.