21. Will Donald Trump make at least one tweet in 2023?
70%
chance

Resolves positively if the @realdonaldtrump account tweets with Trump's implied approval, even if the tweet was written by an intern. Does not resolve positively if the account is hacked or tweets apparently without Trump's approval.

This is question #21 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.

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Arrrrrrr 🤖Bot
is predicting YES at 79%
ButtocksCocktoasten avatar

He will make exactly one tweet, containing only a single word: rationalussy.

Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting
bought Ṁ80 of NO
AlQuinn avatar

@StanPinsent So this run-up is based on a clickbait news story? Gonna buy some NO

itsTomekK avatar