🏅 Top traders

As Jack said we tend to resolve these markets rather than waiting for Scott's confirmation to return capital. We can always re-resolve under extraordinary circumstances.

Even if this is 100% to resolve yes this is trading too high given expected duration...

@ZviMowshowitz Usually prediction markets have the opposite problem. A welcome reversal.

@ZviMowshowitz Will it be resolved only when the market closes, ie, 1/1/24?

@ZviMowshowitz Would be quite a plot twist if Trump did not approve it.

I expect the market to resolve soon. Past markets by ACXBot have.

The standard procedure has been: Resolve when the event happens, and in the (extraordinarily unlikely) event that Scott rules differently, re-resolve

https://x.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1694886846050771321?s=46

@anne lol

https://manifold.markets/StrayClimb/trump-tweets-tonight-wednesday-823

Trump tweets tonight (Wednesday 8/23) before midnight PST

50% chance. or posts on X or whatever him or his staff if he starts a new account it's okay, or if he uses the old one

One dude writes a comment that this is a NO because X posts don't count as Tweets - market tanks.

One dude posts a fake Truth Social post, and without anyone checking Truth Social to see if it's real - market soars.

Guys.

@JamesColiar

Act now, check later. That's how it usually goes. Don't want to be left behind, while checking to see if source is credible.

Trump hasn't made any comments or anything about any desire to use twitter. rather, he's talked about how he's on truthsocial instead. Yet, people still bet Yes here.

@higherLEVELING Because truthsocial is in danger, it's losing money.

@higherLEVELING
> Act now, check later.

That's my motto along with "buy high, sell low".

@ErlendLken I'm calling this fake. Provide an actual link and I'll apologize.

Edit: I searched his truth social for the last day and didn't see this post.

@parhizj I don’t know I saw it on Twitter 🤷‍♂️

@ErlendLken That’s fake. It’s not on his truth social feed.

@ErlendLken Don't trust twitter posts! 😂

Sad!

is there a reason this market cratered?

oh just one guy nvm

Not calling a tweet a tweet is silly. Corporations don't define words. People (and dictionaries) do.

In ancient English, the word book was pronounced "byyke". Nowadays, nobody says that word, so I guess from their POV, no books are published in the modern world, because no "byyke's" are published.

^^^^ I do not agree with this argument.

There is still a chance that tweets are reborn. But i think it is much less than 1/3

@KongoLandwalker While the market's resolution hinges on Scott Alexander's interpretation, the most reasonable interpretation is that X posts ARE tweets. If Donald Trump changed his name, should this market resolve to NO? If dictionaries change all the definitions of the word 'one' to '2', should the market resolve NO if only one tweet was posted?

@JamesColiar "if donald trump changes name". I would make another analogy: if Donald Trump is dead, but his finger falls on the send button, is Donald Trump making the action?

Some entities are not continuous in time. As long as i am alive, i am considered continuous, even though all my molecules get regularly replaced.

Some entities are not. Change 1 line in constitution or quickly replace 10 gov positions (coup) and the country might be considered a new entity by others.

Twitter (as a mix of community and tech) lost all his spiritual features i knew him for. Now it is a milking machine. I consider the entity dead.

@KongoLandwalker well, they still have exclusive legal right to all historical tweets.

@KongoLandwalker well I never tweet. My dead skin cells are actually the ones pushing the button, right before they flake off.