Most likely justices dying or resigning, but court packing would also qualify.
This is question #20 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ213 | |
| 2 | Ṁ105 | |
| 3 | Ṁ104 | |
| 4 | Ṁ97 | |
| 5 | Ṁ62 |
The actuarial tables combined add up to about 13% for a full year, which should be adjusted downward for what we know of their current health. Would anyone retire otherwise? The conservative justices won’t do it if they have any choice. There’s still some corner cases, but historically they don’t come up much. So the question is whether a liberal will retire or Biden will pack the court. Biden won’t pack the court.
If Sotomayor and Kagan did not retire in 2022 when it made strategic sense to do so, how likely is it that they’d do it in 2023 when they could wait until 2024, which seems strictly better? I don’t see it. I bought M250 of NO to bring this down to 17%, my fair is still a few percent lower than that.- Zvi Mowshowitz
12% chance of at least one dying if they were random Americans in those demographics:
.3%
.4%
.8%
.9%
1% (Kavanaugh)
1.25% (Sotomayor)
2% (Roberts)
2.9% (Alito)
3.2% (Thomas)