10. Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan in 2023?
6%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Very loosely, an invasion of a scale such that China most likely intended for it to establish direct control over at least half of the island of Taiwan, whether or not they actually accomplish this.
This is question #10 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
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alan growis predicting YES at 8%
China staged another round of “strike drills” around Taiwan this morning: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-stages-drills-citing-us-taiwan-provocation-2022-12-25/
YES shares
15,525
1,597
536
339
235
146
136
132
130
130
126
120
NO shares
15,343
1,098
778
530
404
267
266
220
160
137
109
108
108
108
108
108
107




















