If sustainable aviation fuels take off, which type of fuel will be most widely used? | Manifold

If sustainable aviation fuels take off, which type of fuel will be most widely used?

Technology Environment Aviation Airline Industry Sustainability

Basic

16

Ṁ716

2050

1D

1W

1M

ALL

84%

Biofuels

84%

Synthetic fuels

39%

Hydrogen

21%

Used Oil

10%

Electric

Synthetic fuels aka 'power-to-liquid' fuels contain all liquid non plant based varieties.

Biofuels contain all fuels based on harvested plants.

Used oil refers to all oils that are produced for other industries and recycled as fuel.

If multiple types of fuels are still competing by close date, this will resolve to best available estimates of percentage used in commercial flight.

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Some labs are working on hydrogenating biomass, extracting certain components, and mixing these with synthetic hydrocarbons. I think this approach is likely to be successful. Which category does it fall under?

Shouldn't this be a linked market that forces the total to sum to 100%? Not sure whether that can be changed after question creation though.

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Related questions

What decade will US air travel be more than 50% sustainably fueled? Hydrogen/renewable fuels/electric

Will aviation fuel with lead be banned in the United States before 2029?

Will the majority of new passenger aircraft sold in 2050 be hydrogen fueled?

What will be the world's top energy source in 2030?

Will the switch from 100LL (leaded aviation gas) to 100UL (unleaded aviation gas) cause small airports to become a thing of the past due to a lack of sufficient revenue?

In what year will leaded aviation fuel be banned across all US states?

Will Prometheus Fuels sell fuel by the end of 2025?

What lifting gas will the largest lighter-than-air aircraft use in 2040?

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Which shipping fuel type will be the primary alternative to fuel oil in order books in 2024 for larger vessels (> 5k gt)