Vehicular hydrogen is fucked because there’s no good way to store hydrogen in the long-term. This means that hydrogen grid isn’t really feasible. So, very bearish on fuel cell trucking.

Engineering Explained does a pretty good job showing the inherent flaw of battery-electric trucks from a physics standpoint.

@thepurplebull his conclusion in that video: "Overall, I was quite surprised that there didn't seem to be a fatal flaw, from a theoretical standpoint, in the Tesla Semi".

Good video! Very fact-heavy and informative.

For long haul trucking, the ranges need to be higher than they currently are, I think. But that may come before 2030, and retrofitting an electric semi with an improved battery (more energy per KG of weight, say) should be possible.

@equinoxhq That’s the only real barrier right now—in order for electric trucking to be viable, there needs to be better batteries. It is totally possible with high energy density batteries plus looser gross weight restrictions. Right now however, I think it would take a lot for that to be developed and profitable by 2030.

Regardless, this market asks about the USA only, where the median class 8 truck age is around 6 years old. This figure has been steady over the years. Short of mandates or subsidies, I don’t think heavy duty trucks sold in 2030 will be much different from now since they are generally much slower to change than family cars for example.

What if it's still diesel?

@kalassak Good point - I've added a "diesel will still be dominant" option.

@TonyJackson Adding an option after bets have been placed automatically robs anyone who has already placed a bet under the previous set of options.

@UselessTrash Agreed.