What power source will replace diesel for long-haul trucking by 2030?
53
1.4kṀ51052031
16%
Battery-electric vehicle
4%
Hydrogen fuel cell
11%
Synthetic natural gas / hydrocarbons / biofuels
0.1%
Fusion
0.1%
Fossil-fuel natural gas
68%
Diesel will still be dominant
0.5%
The intention for resolution is to determine the winner based on fraction of trucks sold in the USA in 2030. There are currently very few non-diesel long-haul systems deployed, so I don't yet know what source will provide data on truck sales by power type, but I expect it will be a group like the US Energy Information Administration providing a chart similar to this one:
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=60321
Placing resolution date as March 1 2031 to allow time for collection of sales statistics for 2030.
If a novel technology is developed between now and 2030 that looks to be a contender for becoming the dominant power source for long-haul trucking, I'll add the technology to the options.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
What power sources will provide at least 10% of the energy used in maritime transportation in 2040.
What will be the world's top energy source in 2030?
Will the trucking industry be automated by end of 2030?
30% chance
What decade will US air travel be more than 50% sustainably fueled? Hydrogen/renewable fuels/electric
What will be the sources of non-fossil-fuel energy production in the United States in 2040?
Energy storage technology of new cars sold in the EU in 2034
Will the majority of new passenger aircraft sold in 2050 be hydrogen fueled?
14% chance
Will the majority of the global civil aviation industry be hybrid or fully electric by 2035?
9% chance
Will a new form of clean energy surpass solar in efficiency by 2030?
15% chance
Will at least 20% of the vehicles in either the U.S.A., China or the EU use Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) technology by 2030?
21% chance