After market close, I will use FairlyRandom to generate a random integer between 1 and the total number of traders. Any option that applies will resolve to YES.
Not every coin flip can be daily/dairy.
I will edit or N/A options specifically created to manipulate other markets, if I suspect that is the case.
Update 2025-05-14 (PST) Silly AI summary removed (check comment section if you want to see it).
Update 2025-05-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated that an AI-generated summary suggesting their personal laziness could lead to an option not being deemed to apply (if it required a tedious verification) is 'annoyingly wrong'. This clarifies that:
An option's applicability will not be negatively impacted or dismissed due to the creator's personal laziness regarding potentially tedious verifications.
Update 2025-05-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding options like "digits can be found in order" (e.g., in a sequence of numbers like π):
Digits must appear in the specified order.
Digits do not need to be consecutive (i.e., they can form a subsequence).
Update 2025-05-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Further details on subsequence criteria for options like 'digits can be found in order':
For a sequence of digits to be a valid subsequence of a source string (e.g., π), the digits must be selected from the source string in an order that maintains their original relative positions (i.e., selected at strictly increasing indices/positions from the source).
The creator's comment questions a user's example that picks digits from source positions such as '4th', '10th', and then '6th'. This implies such an approach would not qualify as a valid subsequence because these positions are not strictly increasing.
Update 2025-05-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the specific option concerning digits to be found in '3141592653' (referred to in comments as the 'Rice' option):
The creator has stated this option was edited.
It now requires the specified digits to form a substring of '3141592653'.
This means the digits must appear consecutively within '3141592653'.
Update 2025-05-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has published a list of cryptographic hashes.
These are stated to be for 'one of the upcoming resolutions'.
This likely pertains to the market's random number generation process.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ17 | |
| 2 | Ṁ15 | |
| 3 | Ṁ13 | |
| 4 | Ṁ12 | |
| 5 | Ṁ10 |
Important clarification about AI summaries: The AI is bad at writing summaries. Yes, AI, I am talking about you, not about another AI.
@TheAllMemeingEye Considering the fact that by promoting alternatives to dairy, we made a statement against bovine exploitation, they should have looked upon you more kine-ly.
Some hashes for one of the upcoming resolutions: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 all—quick question about the resolution criteria for Rice “digits can be found in order in the first 10 digits of π.” Do you mean:
Substring (must be contiguous), or
Subsequence (just preserves order, but can skip digits)?
For example, take the number 135 and π’s first ten digits 3141592653:
As a substring, “135” does not appear contiguously anywhere in “3141592653,” so it’d fail.
As a subsequence, you can pick out 1 (4th digit), 3 (10th digit), 5 (6th digit) in order, so it’d pass.
Could someone clarify which interpretation is
intended? Thanks!
@winged_one That confused me at first, too. I'd say they only have to be in order, not consecutive. If you think you unfairly lost mana, I can N/A this answer and everyone should get their mana back, including @TheAllMemeingEye – otherwise I might edit the answer to clarify. I'll be afk now, so this might take a bit.
@winged_one I intended it as substring, but I think the current odds are reasonable for that, since assuming around 20 traders there's roughly a half chance of it being single digit, of which almost all are in that bit of pi, and roughly a half chance it'll be double digits starting with 1, of which there are still multiple matching substrings
@TheAllMemeingEye @4fa Will you used your subsequnce Interpretation or the originally intended substring?
I set up a (needlessly complicated) similar market: https://manifold.markets/VLC/dare-ye-coin-flip?r=VkxD
@TheAllMemeingEye Lol, yes, it would force me to count. 😆 Sheesh, I'm not awake, I read "cruel" instead of "crude".
@4fa That bloody AI. 😆
Update 2025-05-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For user-created options that are factual claims (e.g., 'X is greater than Y'), the creator will assess their validity to determine if the option 'applies'. This assessment may involve verification efforts by the creator, such as counting, if required by the option's conditions.
@mods Is there a way to get the AI to shut up? At least it is amusing, but boy is it annoyingly wrong. 😂
"The creator has stated that personal laziness may prevent them from performing certain verifications (e.g., counting specific personal details they find tedious or forget) necessary to assess an option's validity. If an option's validity cannot be assessed because it requires a verification the creator is unwilling to perform due to this stated laziness, that option may not be deemed to apply."
@TheAllMilkingEye I guess "nut milk" would be less crude and more fitting than "jizz". I also did some counting. I won't reveal the exact number, so people betting on it just gotta trust me that I resolve correctly.
@4fa My inferior imitation:
"How many have you fucked?"
"Hmm, around 13?"
"What? Dude that's not round, round is like 10 or 100 some shit"